Kenai Chinook Estimates, Indices and Inseason Run Summaries
See also the prior Final Early Run Chinook Inseason Summary
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Location: Kenai River (Chinook) |
The selected years are color-coded in the graphs below:
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Daily Counts
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Cumulative
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Description: In 2015 the department began managing Kenai River king salmon runs using an ARIS sonar station located at river mile 14. In 2017 the Department modified the Kenai River king salmon escapement goals from goals based on king salmon of all sizes, to escapement goals based on large king salmon (fish over 34 inches) only. The early-run king salmon optimal escapement goal range is 3,900 to 6,600 large king salmon (> 34 inches). In 2020 the late-run king salmon escapement goal was modified to an optimal escapement goal range is 15,000 to 30,000 large king salmon (> 34 inches). The ARIS sonar counts found on this page are the daily and seasonal cumulative passage estimates of the number of large king salmon passing the sonar site. Additionally, the past years counts displayed on this page have been converted to large fish counts for comparison. These estimated numbers of large king salmon passing the sonar site are the primary tool for the Kenai River king salmon assessment program that also includes a sport angler harvest survey, and a netting program. The data gathered in these assessments are used together to determine king salmon run strength. This data in conjunction with Fishery Management Plans, allows fishery managers to determine if emergency order regulation changes to the fisheries are needed during the season to help ensure that the escapement goals are achieved. These abundance assessments as well as information about the status of the run and inseason management actions can be viewed via this website on the above tabs. Information is also available by telephone at (907)262-9097.
Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Early Run:
3,900 - 6,600
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Contact:
Upper Cook Inlet Area Management Biologist, | |
51 records returned for the years selected. Dashes indicate days with no count.
[Export results in Excel format or JSON format]
| Date 2023 |
Count 2023 |
Cumulative 2023 |
Cumulative 2022 |
Cumulative 2021 |
Cumulative 2020 |
Cumulative 2019 |
Notes for 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug-20 | - | 0 | 13,425 | 11,832 | 11,499 | 11,868 | |
| Aug-19 | - | 0 | 13,425 | 11,754 | 11,486 | 11,747 | |
| Aug-18 | - | 0 | 13,338 | 11,656 | 11,413 | 11,723 | |
| Aug-17 | - | 0 | 13,253 | 11,486 | 11,292 | 11,687 | |
| Aug-16 | - | 0 | 13,124 | 11,419 | 11,062 | 11,571 | |
| Aug-15 | - | 0 | 12,961 | 11,279 | 10,813 | 11,413 | |
| Aug-14 | - | 0 | 12,779 | 11,151 | 10,491 | 11,298 | |
| Aug-13 | - | 0 | 12,567 | 10,884 | 10,254 | 11,074 | |
| Aug-12 | - | 0 | 12,257 | 10,684 | 10,066 | 11,013 | |
| Aug-11 | - | 0 | 11,887 | 10,491 | 9,867 | 10,898 | |
| Aug-10 | - | 0 | 11,626 | 10,303 | 9,719 | 10,753 | |
| Aug-09 | - | 0 | 11,407 | 9,757 | 9,616 | 10,629 | |
| Aug-08 | - | 0 | 11,270 | 9,248 | 9,483 | 10,538 | |
| Aug-07 | - | 0 | 11,124 | 8,872 | 9,325 | 10,410 | |
| Aug-06 | - | 0 | 10,875 | 8,419 | 9,185 | 10,198 | |
| Aug-05 | - | 0 | 10,487 | 8,064 | 8,827 | 10,059 | |
| Aug-04 | - | 0 | 10,024 | 7,747 | 8,494 | 9,889 | |
| Aug-03 | - | 0 | 9,711 | 7,504 | 8,089 | 9,586 | |
| Aug-02 | - | 0 | 9,377 | 6,729 | 7,932 | 9,434 | |
| Aug-01 | - | 0 | 9,001 | 6,420 | 7,647 | 9,258 | |
| Jul-31 | - | 0 | 8,686 | 6,189 | 7,465 | 9,118 | |
| Jul-30 | - | 0 | 8,189 | 5,818 | 7,112 | 8,906 | |
| Jul-29 | - | 0 | 7,825 | 5,636 | 6,681 | 8,615 | |
| Jul-28 | - | 0 | 7,394 | 5,296 | 6,456 | 8,373 | |
| Jul-27 | - | 0 | 7,077 | 5,077 | 6,019 | 8,118 | |
| Jul-26 | - | 0 | 6,531 | 4,864 | 5,692 | 7,876 | |
| Jul-25 | - | 0 | 6,136 | 4,610 | 5,438 | 7,543 | |
| Jul-24 | - | 0 | 5,675 | 4,452 | 5,146 | 7,213 | |
| Jul-23 | - | 0 | 5,329 | 4,270 | 4,970 | 6,849 | |
| Jul-22 | - | 0 | 4,927 | 4,142 | 4,787 | 6,473 | |
| Jul-21 | - | 0 | 4,539 | 3,953 | 4,520 | 5,970 | |
| Jul-20 | - | 0 | 4,142 | 3,717 | 4,164 | 5,424 | |
| Jul-19 | - | 0 | 3,832 | 3,207 | 3,879 | 4,921 | |
| Jul-18 | - | 0 | 3,419 | 2,872 | 3,615 | 4,551 | |
| Jul-17 | - | 0 | 2,982 | 2,581 | 3,404 | 4,132 | |
| Jul-16 | - | 0 | 2,655 | 2,363 | 3,153 | 3,647 | |
| Jul-15 | - | 0 | 2,352 | 2,113 | 2,941 | 3,343 | |
| Jul-14 | - | 0 | 2,147 | 1,871 | 2,680 | 3,021 | |
| Jul-13 | - | 0 | 1,890 | 1,714 | 2,220 | 2,657 | |
| Jul-12 | - | 0 | 1,751 | 1,538 | 1,699 | 2,397 | |
| Jul-11 | - | 0 | 1,597 | 1,423 | 1,407 | 2,067 | |
| Jul-10 | - | 0 | 1,475 | 1,303 | 1,249 | 1,734 | |
| Jul-09 | - | 0 | 1,162 | 1,121 | 989 | 1,455 | |
| Jul-08 | - | 0 | 950 | 994 | 831 | 1,252 | |
| Jul-07 | - | 0 | 731 | 812 | 728 | 1,053 | |
| Jul-06 | - | 0 | 537 | 709 | 583 | 890 | |
| Jul-05 | - | 0 | 404 | 606 | 407 | 630 | |
| Jul-04 | - | 0 | 307 | 515 | 304 | 473 | |
| Jul-03 | - | 0 | 222 | 369 | 219 | 314 | |
| Jul-02 | - | 0 | 172 | 253 | 146 | 235 | |
| Jul-01 | - | 0 | 123 | 140 | 73 | 97 |
Non-Sonar Tools
Late Run Netting Project CPUE Index
The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at river mile 8.6.
Late Run Sport CPUE Index
The Sport Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon in the lower Kenai River and is based on the success rate of anglers fishing downstream of the Sterling Highway Bridge Crossing in Soldotna.
Late Run Netting Project Large Fish CPUE Index
The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at the sonar station located at river mile 8.6.
Late Run Netting Project CPUE Index
The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at river mile 8.6.
Late Run Sport CPUE Index
The Sport Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon in the lower Kenai River and is based on the success rate of anglers fishing downstream of the Sterling Highway Bridge Crossing in Soldotna.
Late Run Netting Project Large Fish CPUE Index
The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at the sonar station located at river mile 8.6.
Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area
Late Run Kenai River Chinook Inseason Summary for Thu. Aug 18
KENAI RIVER LATE-RUN KING SALMON SUMMARY
King Salmon Run Update:
The cumulative estimated passage through August 16 is 13,124 large king salmon. The optimal escapement goal is 15,000 – 30,000 large king salmon. Inseason assessment of the king salmon run consists of the sonar at RM 14 on the Kenai River mainstem, a sport angler creel survey of the lower river, inriver test netting for age, sex, length composition, and sampling of king salmon harvest in the east side set net commercial fishery. These ongoing information sources, along with historical data allow ADF&G to formulate inseason run projections of estimated escapement, harvest, and total run of large Kenai River king salmon. Figure 1 is a table of the 2022 projections using data that is available through August 16. The inseason projection of escapement using the historical mean run timing is approximately 14,033 large fish. Using historical mean run timing the run is at ~ 96% complete.
Fishery Update:
The Kenai River late-run king salmon sport fishery is closed.
The preseason outlook for the 2022 late-run can be found at:
http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fishing/pdfs/sport/byarea/southcentral/2022KenaiLateRunOutlook.pdf
This information was compiled based on raw and historical data for inseason management purposes.
Final data is subject to change.
Figure 1. 2022 Inseason Summary Estimates for Kenai River Late-run Large Chinook Salmon
| Sonar data thru: | 16-Aug | ESSN Summary | ||||||||
| Current Inriver King Assessment Information | ESSN Total King Salmon harvest | 306 | (Fish Ticket Catch Report) | |||||||
| Most Recent Daily Sonar | 163 | ESSN Large King Salmon Harvests (all stocks) Based on Inseason Length Data | 46 | |||||||
| Cumulative Sonar to Date | 13,124 | Percentage Large King Salmon in ESSN Sample Thru | 16-Aug | 15% | ||||||
| Est. Creel Harvest to Date | 0 | Min, mean, and max of Large ESSN King Salmon that were of Kenai origin (2010-2018 data) | ||||||||
| Creel Harvest Above Sonar | 0 | Kenai Large Contribution | 61% | 70% | 79% | |||||
| Creel Harvest Below Sonar | 0 | ESSN Large Kenai Harvest to Date | 28 | 32 | 36 | |||||
| Creel All Sizes of King Salmon | 0 | ESSN Projected Kenai Large Harvest | 28 | 32 | 36 | |||||
| Projected end of season estimates for large late-run Kenai River Chinook salmon. | ||||||||||
| Run Timing | Run to Date | Estimated run to Sonar RM14 | Estimated inriver run (includes spawning & harvest below sonar) | Estimated Escapement (includes spawners below sonar) | Estimated Sport Harvest Above Sonar RM 14 to Skilak Lake | Estimated Sport Harvest Below Sonar RM 14 | Estimated Total Inriver Sport Harvest | Estimated ESSN Harvest | Estimated Total Run | Estimated Exploitation |
| On time | 96.40% | 13,614 | 14,255 | 14,033 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 14,287 | 0.34% |
| Early Timing Scenarios | ||||||||||
| 1 early | 97.47% | 13,465 | 14,099 | 13,877 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 14,131 | 0.35% |
| 2 early | 98.23% | 13,360 | 13,990 | 13,768 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 14,022 | 0.35% |
| 3 early | 99.19% | 13,231 | 13,855 | 13,633 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 13,888 | 0.35% |
| Late Timing Scenarios | ||||||||||
| 1 late | 95.58% | 13,731 | 14,353 | 14,292 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 14,342 | 0.35% |
| 2 late | 94.11% | 13,945 | 14,533 | 14,516 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 14,566 | 0.34% |
| 3 late | 92.34% | 14,213 | 14,812 | 14,794 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 14,844 | 0.33% |
| * Retention of king salmon is prohibited in personal use fisheries for 2022 | ||||||||||