Kenai Chinook Estimates, Indices and Inseason Run Summaries


Location: Kenai River (Chinook)
Species: Chinook - Early Run
Method: Sonar

The selected years are color-coded in the graphs below:

  • 2020
  • 2019
  • 2018
  • 2017
  • 2016
Daily Counts
Cumulative

Description: In 2015 the department began managing Kenai River king salmon runs using an ARIS sonar station located at river mile 14. In 2017 the Department modified the Kenai River king salmon escapement goals from goals based on king salmon of all sizes, to escapement goals based on large king salmon (fish over 34 inches) only. The early-run king salmon optimal escapement goal range is 3,900 to 6,600 large king salmon (> 34 inches). In 2020 the late-run king salmon escapement goal was modified to an optimal escapement goal range is 15,000 to 30,000 large king salmon (> 34 inches). The ARIS sonar counts found on this page are the daily and seasonal cumulative passage estimates of the number of large king salmon passing the sonar site. Additionally, the past years counts displayed on this page have been converted to large fish counts for comparison. These estimated numbers of large king salmon passing the sonar site are the primary tool for the Kenai River king salmon assessment program that also includes a sport angler harvest survey, and a netting program. The data gathered in these assessments are used together to determine king salmon run strength. This data in conjunction with Fishery Management Plans, allows fishery managers to determine if emergency order regulation changes to the fisheries are needed during the season to help ensure that the escapement goals are achieved. These abundance assessments as well as information about the status of the run and inseason management actions can be viewed via this website on the above tabs. Information is also available by telephone at (907)262-9097.

Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Early Run: 3,900 - 6,600 (Graphed above)
Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Late Run: 15,000 - 30,000

Contact: Northern Kenai Sport Fish Area Manager,
(907) 260-2920

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

46 records returned for the years selected. Dashes indicate days with no count.
[Export results in Excel format or JSON format]

Date
2020
Count
2020
Cumulative
2020
Cumulative
2019
Cumulative
2018
Cumulative
2017
Notes for
2020
Jun-30 54 2,444 4,186 3,000 7,237  
Jun-29 73 2,390 4,119 2,903 7,128  
Jun-28 67 2,317 4,024 2,855 7,001  
Jun-27 49 2,250 3,975 2,734 6,917  
Jun-26 43 2,201 3,878 2,668 6,790  
Jun-25 42 2,158 3,775 2,614 6,621  
Jun-24 30 2,116 3,657 2,542 6,507  
Jun-23 91 2,086 3,554 2,494 6,423  
Jun-22 73 1,995 3,463 2,447 6,332  
Jun-21 85 1,922 3,390 2,387 6,242  
Jun-20 103 1,837 3,323 2,326 6,109  
Jun-19 67 1,734 3,176 2,267 6,043  
Jun-18 248 1,667 3,085 2,243 5,922  
Jun-17 145 1,419 3,011 2,182 5,663  
Jun-16 109 1,274 2,944 2,116 5,470  
Jun-15 24 1,165 2,901 2,098 5,277  
Jun-14 92 1,141 2,774 2,013 4,963  
Jun-13 60 1,049 2,671 1,892 4,589  
Jun-12 73 989 2,453 1,820 4,282  
Jun-11 24 916 2,332 1,742 4,010  
Jun-10 115 892 2,126 1,609 3,726  
Jun-09 109 777 1,981 1,488 3,473  
Jun-08 85 668 1,818 1,385 3,298  
Jun-07 55 583 1,661 1,282 3,027  
Jun-06 79 528 1,524 1,161 2,820  
Jun-05 91 449 1,304 1,041 2,619  
Jun-04 86 358 1,074 932 2,335  
Jun-03 36 272 898 805 2,135  
Jun-02 42 236 699 702 1,767  
Jun-01 18 194 584 587 1,495  
May-31 67 176 457 478 1,260  
May-30 24 109 409 417 1,091  
May-29 25 85 343 338 892  
May-28 12 60 283 290 741  
May-27 0 48 203 241 650  
May-26 0 48 156 192 552  
May-25 18 48 120 186 422  
May-24 18 30 84 174 319  
May-23 12 12 48 138 259  
May-22 0 0 24 96 168  
May-21 0 0 18 66 150  
May-20 0 0 0 48 144  
May-19 0 0 6 42 108  
May-18 0 0 0 18 66  
May-17 0 0 0 0 36  
May-16 0 0 0 0 6  

Non-Sonar Tools

Early Run Netting Project CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at river mile 8.6.


Early Run Sport CPUE Index

The Sport Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon in the lower Kenai River and is based on the success rate of anglers fishing downstream of the Sterling Highway Bridge Crossing in Soldotna.

Early Run Netting Project Large Fish CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at the sonar station located at river mile 8.6.

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area


Early Run Kenai River Chinook Inseason Summary for Thu. Aug 13

KENAI RIVER LATE-RUN KING SALMON SUMMARY #09

King Salmon Run Update:

Estimation of the late-run began on July 1, the cumulative estimated passage through August 12 is 10,066 large king salmon. The optimal escapement goal is 15,000 – 30,000 large king salmon. Inseason assessment of the king salmon run consists of the sonar at RM 14 on the Kenai River mainstem, a sport angler creel survey of the lower river, inriver test netting for age, sex, length composition, and sampling of king salmon harvest in the east side set net commercial fishery. These information sources, along with historical data allow ADF&G managers to formulate inseason run projections of estimated escapement, harvest, and total run of large Kenai River king salmon. Figure 1 is a table of the 2020 projections using data that is available on August 12. The inseason projection of escapement using the historical mean run timing is approximately 11,400 fish.

In response to the inseason projections of escapement being less than 15,000 large king salmon, ADF&G issued an emergency order prohibiting the use of bait and multiple hooks in the Kenai River from the outlet of Skilak Lake downstream to the mouth effective 12:01 a.m. August 1 through 11:59 p.m. August 15, 2020.

                                                                                                                                                        

The next inseason summary will be updated August 21.

Fishery Update:

The king salmon sport fishery season closed by regulation on July 31.

The preseason outlook for the 2020 late-run can be found at:

http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fishing/pdfs/sport/byarea/southcentral/2020KenaiLateRunOutlook.pdf.

Water Conditions: 

Water levels as of August 13 in the Kenai River are below average in the upper river and average in the lower river. Water temperature is slightly above average.

CFS at Soldotna Bridge was 13,700 and 9.34 ft

CFS at Skilak Lake Outlet was 12,100 and 11.19 ft

CFS at Cooper Landing was 5,040 and 9.88 ft

Water Temperature was 55 degrees Fahrenheit at the sonar site.

This information was compiled based on raw and historical data for inseason management purposes.

Final data is subject to change.

Figure 1. 2020 Inseason Summary Estimates for Kenai River Late-run Large Chinook Salmon

Sonar data thru: 12-Aug   ESSN Summary          
Current Inriver Chinook Assessment Information ESSN Total Chinook Salmon harvest 818 (Fish Ticket Catch Report)
Most Recent Daily Sonar 199 ESSN Large Chinook Harvests (all stocks) Based on Inseason Length Data 221
Cumulative Sonar to Date 10,066 Percentage Large Chinook in ESSN Sample Thru 12-Aug 27%  
Est. Creel Harvest to Date 0 Min, mean, and max of Large ESSN Chinook that were of Kenai origin (2010-2018 data)        
Creel Harvest Above Sonar 0 Kenai Large Contribution   60% 69% 79%  
Creel Harvest Below Sonar 0 ESSN Large Kenai Harvest to Date 133 152 174  
Creel All Sizes of Chinook 67 ESSN Projected Kenai Large Harvest 133 153 175  
                     
                     
Projected end of season estimates for large late-run Kenai River Chinook salmon.         
Run Timing Run to Date Estimated run to Sonar RM14 Estimated inriver run (includes spawning & harvet below sonar) Estimated Escapement (includes spawners below sonar) Estimated Sport Harvest Above Sonar RM 14 to Skilak Lake Estimated Sport Harvest Below Sonar RM 14 Estimated Total Inriver Sport Harvest Estimated ESSN Harvest Estimated Total Run Estimated Exploitation
On time 91.40% 11,014 11,502 11,403 67 32 99 153 11,622 2.16%
                     
Early Timing Scenarios                
1 early 92.84% 10,842 11,323 11,224 67 32 99 152 11,451 2.20%
2 early 94.50% 10,652 11,125 11,026 67 32 99 152 11,260 2.23%
                     
Late Timing Scenarios                
1 late 89.88% 11,199 11,695 11,596 67 32 99 152 11,808 2.13%
2 late 88.49% 11,376 11,879 11,780 67 32 99 152 11,984 2.10%
* Retention of king salmon is prohibited in personal use fisheries for 2020