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Alaska Department of Fish and Game


Kenai Chinook Estimates, Indices and Inseason Run Summaries

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Location: Kenai River (Chinook)
Species: Chinook - Late Run
Method: Sonar

The selected years are color-coded in the graphs below:

  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
Daily Counts
Cumulative

Description: Beginning in 2015 the department will be managing Kenai Chinook runs using the ARIS sonar located at river mile 14, instead of the DIDSON sonar located at river mile 8.6. The 2013 and 2014 data provided below are ARIS sonar estimates from rm 14. The ARIS sonar estimates will be updated twice weekly. The daily estimates represent Chinook salmon of all age and size classes. This ARIS sonar estimate is used to measure total run abundance relative to the optimum escapement goal of 5,300-9,000 early-run Chinook salmon and the sustainable escapement goal of 15,000-30,000 late-run Chinook salmon. To view daily estimates about Chinook salmon passage go to the Abundance Indices tab, which is updated as data becomes available. The inseason run summary tab will provide information about Chinook salmon passage at the mile 14 ARIS sonar site external link, netting project, creel survey, water conditions and management actions twice each week. Information about the status of the run and inseason management actions are also available by telephone at (907) 262-9097.

Contact: Area Management Biologist,
(907) 262-9368

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

51 records returned for the years selected. Dashes indicate days with no count.
[Export results in Excel format]

Date
2015
Count
2015
Cumulative
2015
Cumulative
2014
Cumulative
2013
Notes for
2015
Aug-20 163 23,705 14,134 16,645  
Aug-19 137 23,542 14,134 16,645  
Aug-18 299 23,405 14,134 16,645  
Aug-17 272 23,106 14,134 16,645  
Aug-16 146 22,834 14,134 16,428  
Aug-15 236 22,688 14,134 16,226  
Aug-14 282 22,452 13,949 15,976  
Aug-13 385 22,170 13,717 15,648  
Aug-12 171 21,785 13,594 15,367  
Aug-11 190 21,614 13,400 15,185  
Aug-10 539 21,424 13,169 14,928  
Aug-09 450 20,885 12,836 14,568  
Aug-08 493 20,435 12,295 14,156  
Aug-07 446 19,942 12,041 13,611  
Aug-06 738 19,496 11,801 13,354  
Aug-05 623 18,758 11,194 12,996  
Aug-04 513 18,135 10,562 12,534  
Aug-03 443 17,622 10,115 12,067  
Aug-02 367 17,179 9,580 11,470  
Aug-01 190 16,812 9,188 10,899  
Jul-31 269 16,622 8,743 10,330  
Jul-30 419 16,353 8,069 9,749  
Jul-29 413 15,934 7,519 9,230  
Jul-28 439 15,521 7,096 8,749  
Jul-27 465 15,082 6,698 8,343  
Jul-26 633 14,617 6,353 7,997  
Jul-25 754 13,984 5,991 7,444  
Jul-24 1,209 13,230 5,574 7,077  
Jul-23 942 12,021 5,371 6,867  
Jul-22 790 11,079 5,030 6,470  
Jul-21 567 10,289 4,772 6,252  
Jul-20 438 9,722 4,363 6,081  
Jul-19 489 9,284 3,917 5,652  
Jul-18 828 8,795 3,588 5,245  
Jul-17 1,018 7,967 3,082 4,607  
Jul-16 500 6,949 2,751 4,113  
Jul-15 513 6,449 2,579 3,349  
Jul-14 498 5,936 2,222 2,835  
Jul-13 493 5,438 2,025 2,345  
Jul-12 750 4,945 1,811 2,014  
Jul-11 655 4,195 1,543 1,825  
Jul-10 665 3,540 1,374 1,499  
Jul-09 492 2,875 1,299 1,227  
Jul-08 375 2,383 1,199 971  
Jul-07 334 2,008 1,032 886  
Jul-06 225 1,674 715 781  
Jul-05 358 1,449 455 648  
Jul-04 288 1,091 283 519  
Jul-03 265 803 178 353  
Jul-02 352 538 154 251  
Jul-01 186 186 88 166 First Day of Late-Run Sonar Estimates

Sonar Tools

Late Run ARIS Threshold (>30 in.) Sonar Estimate

The ARIS threshold estimate is an estimate for fish targets that are measured to be 750 millimeters (30 inches) or greater in METF length. These estimates are a daily index of the relative abundance of Chinook salmon passage past the mile 14 ARIS sonar site.

Show ARIS Threshold Data Table ↓

Date 2015 2014 2013
Jun-20 - - -
Jun-21 - - -
Jun-22 - - -
Jun-23 - - -
Jun-24 - - -
Jun-25 - - -
Jun-26 - - -
Jun-27 - - -
Jun-28 - - -
Jun-29 - - -
Jun-30 - - -
Jul-01 79 36 127
Jul-02 230 66 187
Jul-03 321 78 247
Jul-04 498 138 359
Jul-05 669 229 438
Jul-06 790 405 517
Jul-07 966 587 574
Jul-08 1,227 678 660
Jul-09 1,533 738 846
Jul-10 1,887 786 1,034
Jul-11 2,141 871 1,246
Jul-12 2,455 1,027 1,368
Jul-13 2,739 1,166 1,573
Jul-14 3,041 1,281 1,881
Jul-15 3,349 1,503 2,202
Jul-16 3,651 1,618 2,681
Jul-17 4,128 1,835 2,989
Jul-18 4,653 2,149 3,415
Jul-19 5,033 2,510 3,712
Jul-20 5,353 2,830 4,027
Jul-21 5,836 3,192 4,148
Jul-22 6,483 3,374 4,299
Jul-23 7,305 3,629 4,542
Jul-24 8,331 3,756 4,687
Jul-25 8,935 4,076 4,955
Jul-26 9,484 4,382 5,294
Jul-27 9,876 4,657 5,548
Jul-28 10,251 4,977 5,856
Jul-29 10,584 5,327 6,255
Jul-30 10,922 5,768 6,684
Jul-31 11,161 6,305 7,155
Aug-01 11,324 6,641 7,630
Aug-02 11,626 6,955 8,126
Aug-03 12,018 7,394 8,639
Aug-04 12,470 7,762 9,033
Aug-05 13,062 8,338 9,451
Aug-06 13,768 8,912 9,763
Aug-07 14,197 9,129 9,994
Aug-08 14,680 9,358 10,477
Aug-09 15,103 9,865 10,819
Aug-10 15,623 10,173 11,132
Aug-11 15,804 10,378 11,359
Aug-12 15,972 10,564 11,526
Aug-13 16,323 10,670 11,768
Aug-14 16,595 10,894 12,065
Aug-15 16,807 11,057 12,286
Aug-16 16,945 11,057 12,456
Aug-17 17,175 11,057 12,656
Aug-18 17,410 - -
Aug-19 17,530 - -
Aug-20 17,687 - -

Non-Sonar Tools

Late Run Netting Project CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted river mile 8.6.


Late Run Sport CPUE Index

The Sport Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon in the lower Kenai River and is based on the success rate of anglers fishing downstream of the Sterling Highway Bridge Crossing in Soldotna.

Late Run Eastside Setnet CPUE Index

The Eastside Setnet Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the total number of late-run Kenai River Chinook salmon.

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area


Final Late Run Kenai River Chinook Inseason Summary

Chinook salmon run update:

The preliminary ARIS season ending estimate of Chinook salmon passage at the river mile 14 sonar site was 23,706 Chinook salmon. Compared to the mean of the 2013 and 2014 ARIS counts at river mile 14, this year’s inriver run was approximately 5 days early at river mile 14 with the midpoint on July 23. Approximately 29% of the total late-run passed the sonar in August, which is less when compared to the ARIS sonar operations at river mile 14 for the previous 2 years. Daily Chinook salmon passage over the last two days (August 19-20) was less than one percent of the cumulative total season passage. For the 2015 late-run, the ARIS estimate as well as all indices used to assess run abundance indicated an inriver run that was much improved over the 2 most recent years however still below average. 

Fishery Harvest:

The preliminary creel survey estimate of Chinook salmon sport fish harvest (including catch-and-release mortality) was approximately 4,093 fish. The inriver sport fishery for Chinook salmon was restricted for the entire 2015 season as follows: Chinook salmon fishing was closed for the entire season from ADF&G markers located approximately 300 yards downstream from the mouth of Slikok Creek upstream to ADF&G markers located at the outlet of Skilak Lake while 300 yards downstream from the mouth of Slikok Creek to Cook Inlet was open to Chinook salmon fishing from July 1 through July 31. Bait was prohibited from July 1 through July 24. From July 25 through July 31 the fishery was liberalized to allow the use of bait. Retention of Chinook salmon in the personal use dip net fishery was prohibited from the beginning of the fishery on July 10 through July 24. Retention of Chinook salmon in this fishery was allowed from July 25 through the end of the season on July 31. The preliminary commercial eastside set net harvest was 7,037 Chinook salmon. The commercial eastside set net fishery was also restricted for most of July, until fishing resumed as outlined under provisions of the Kenai River late-run sockeye salmon management plan on July 25. The last eastside set net fishing period was on August 12. Post-season analysis of tissue samples collected from Chinook salmon harvested in the eastside set net fishery will be used to estimate the component of Kenai River Chinook salmon.
Based on these preliminary inriver run and harvest estimates the final estimated total run of late-run Chinook salmon will be substantially larger than the preseason total run forecast of approximately 22,100 Chinook salmon.

Escapement:

The sustainable escapement goal (SEG) for Kenai River late-run Chinook salmon is 15,000 to 30,000 Chinook salmon. The preliminary total estimated inriver mortality (harvest and catch and release mortality) above the sonar is 1,948 fish. After inclusion of a preliminary estimate of 883 Chinook salmon spawning downstream of the sonar (derived from 2012-2014 radio-telemetry data). The preliminary escapement estimate is 22,641 Chinook salmon.

Additional Information:

Data collected from the Chinook salmon netting project at river mile 8.6 and the inriver creel survey of Chinook salmon harvest indicate the size and gender composition of the 2015 late-run more closely resembled historic size and gender compositions rather than those compositions of the most recent years (2013 and 2014). Preliminary information based on using length of fish captured and measured in the mid-river test netting project as proxy for age showed that about 78% of Chinook salmon were 3-ocean age Chinook salmon or older (1-ocean 3%, 2-ocean 19%, 3-ocean 28%, 4-ocean 46%, 5-ocean 4%). In addition, the preliminary gender composition was approximately 47% female and 53% male Chinook salmon from the mid-river netting program. These preliminary mid-river netting compositions were also reflected in the preliminary results of fish sampled in the creel survey using length as a proxy for age, where about 78% of the sport harvest was comprised of 3-ocean age or older Chinook salmon and the gender composition of the harvest was 46% female and 54% male. Overall, preliminary data from the creel survey indicates that a majority of the inriver sport harvest was comprised of fish greater than 45 inches in total length. Scales from both the netting project and the creel survey are being processed and final estimates of the age, gender and length composition of late-run Chinook salmon are still forthcoming.

Summary of cumulative raw information collected thru Aug 27 (by year) that is used to assess Kenai River Chinook run strength.
Year Number Chinook Captured in Test Net at river mile 8.6 Number Sockeye Captured in Test Net at river mile 8.6 Chinook Sport Harvest Below Soldotna Estimated by Creel Survey Cumulative ARIS Sonar Estimate Commercial Set Net Harvest
2002 1,171 1,915 11,482 N/A 9,478
2003 1,446 1,464 13,837 N/A 14,810
2004 1,077 749 14,494 N/A 21,616
2005 1,027 730 15,312 N/A 20,968
2006 1,330 566 13,190 N/A 8,691
2007 780 2,091 9,258 N/A 12,128
2008 895 1,435 9,272 N/A 6,409
2009 559 1,798 7,378 N/A 5,588
2010 311 3,454 5,375 N/A 7,059
2011 472 3,548 6,458 N/A 7,697
2012 345 3,685 102 N/A 704
2013 200 2,066 1,577 16,643 2,630
2014 187 4,201 539 14,134 1,676
2015 243 1,120 3,896 23,706 7,037

NOTE: N/A means that there is no fishery for that date, and an asterisk (*) means that there is no data for that date.