Kenai Chinook Estimates, Indices and Inseason Run Summaries

Location: Kenai River (Chinook)
Species: Chinook - Late Run
Method: Sonar

The selected years are color-coded in the graphs below:

  • 2019
  • 2018
  • 2017
  • 2016
  • 2015
Daily Counts
Cumulative

Description: In 2015 the department began managing Kenai River king salmon runs using an ARIS sonar station located at river mile 14. In 2017 The Department modified the Kenai River king salmon escapement goals from goals based on king salmon of all sizes, to escapement goals based on large king salmon (fish over 34 inches) only. The new early-run king salmon optimal escapement goal range is 3,900 to 6,600 large king salmon (> 34 inches). The new late-run king salmon sustainable escapement goal range is 13,500 to 27,000 large king salmon (> 34 inches). The ARIS sonar counts found on this page are the daily and seasonal cumulative passage estimates of the number of large king salmon passing the sonar site. Additionally, the past years counts displayed on this page have been converted to large fish counts for comparison. These estimated numbers of large king salmon passing the sonar site are the primary tool for the Kenai River king salmon assessment program that also includes a sport angler harvest survey, and a netting program. The data gathered in these assessments are used together to determine king salmon run strength. This data in conjunction with Fishery Management Plans, allows fishery managers to determine if emergency order regulation changes to the fisheries are needed during the season to help ensure that the escapement goals are achieved. These abundance assessments as well as information about the status of the run and inseason management actions can be viewed via this website on the above tabs. Information is also available by telephone at (907)262-9097.

Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Early Run: 3,900 - 6,600
Sustainable Escapement Goal for Chinook - Late Run: 13,500 - 27,000 (Graphed above)

Contact: Northern Kenai Sport Fish Area Manager,
(907) 260-2920

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

51 records returned for the years selected. Dashes indicate days with no count.
[Export results in Excel format or JSON format]

Date
2019
Count
2019
Cumulative
2019
Cumulative
2018
Cumulative
2017
Cumulative
2016
Notes for
2019
Aug-20 - 11,723 16,957 22,133 17,447  
Aug-19 - 11,723 16,672 21,844 17,447  
Aug-18 36 11,723 16,430 21,440 17,254  
Aug-17 116 11,687 16,213 21,097 17,091  
Aug-16 158 11,571 16,062 20,922 17,012  
Aug-15 115 11,413 15,839 20,687 16,698  
Aug-14 224 11,298 15,525 20,452 16,517  
Aug-13 61 11,074 15,296 20,272 16,227  
Aug-12 115 11,013 15,133 19,917 15,847  
Aug-11 145 10,898 14,722 19,634 15,503  
Aug-10 124 10,753 14,415 19,307 15,401  
Aug-09 91 10,629 14,101 19,102 15,027  
Aug-08 128 10,538 13,830 18,704 14,762  
Aug-07 212 10,410 13,552 18,112 14,485  
Aug-06 139 10,198 12,853 17,587 14,126  
Aug-05 170 10,059 12,440 16,920 13,860  
Aug-04 303 9,889 11,848 16,166 13,468  
Aug-03 152 9,586 11,411 15,429 13,051  
Aug-02 176 9,434 10,855 14,952 12,729  
Aug-01 140 9,258 10,434 14,350 12,551  
Jul-31 212 9,118 9,879 13,916 12,266  
Jul-30 291 8,906 9,391 12,993 12,036  
Jul-29 242 8,615 8,969 12,613 11,605  
Jul-28 255 8,373 8,518 12,070 11,121  
Jul-27 242 8,118 8,101 11,448 10,580  
Jul-26 333 7,876 7,675 11,050 10,028  
Jul-25 330 7,543 7,222 10,374 9,669  
Jul-24 364 7,213 6,575 9,813 9,226  
Jul-23 376 6,849 6,176 8,828 8,785  
Jul-22 503 6,473 5,675 8,439 8,350  
Jul-21 546 5,970 5,258 8,041 7,843  
Jul-20 503 5,424 4,878 7,556 7,505  
Jul-19 370 4,921 4,311 7,206 7,207  
Jul-18 419 4,551 3,798 6,706 6,824  
Jul-17 485 4,132 3,439 6,024 6,330  
Jul-16 304 3,647 3,170 5,385 5,967  
Jul-15 322 3,343 2,898 4,770 5,727  
Jul-14 364 3,021 2,770 4,330 5,329  
Jul-13 260 2,657 2,619 3,938 4,751  
Jul-12 330 2,397 2,396 3,540 4,178  
Jul-11 333 2,067 2,100 3,119 3,400  
Jul-10 279 1,734 1,978 2,715 2,803  
Jul-09 203 1,455 1,885 2,323 2,347  
Jul-08 199 1,252 1,637 1,852 2,094  
Jul-07 163 1,053 1,413 1,484 1,817  
Jul-06 260 890 1,051 1,194 1,609  
Jul-05 157 630 798 1,031 1,403  
Jul-04 159 473 598 820 1,066  
Jul-03 79 314 399 609 867  
Jul-02 138 235 278 437 638  
Jul-01 97 97 115 181 264  

Non-Sonar Tools

Late Run Netting Project CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at river mile 8.6.


Late Run Sport CPUE Index

The Sport Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon in the lower Kenai River and is based on the success rate of anglers fishing downstream of the Sterling Highway Bridge Crossing in Soldotna.

Late Run Netting Project Large Fish CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at the sonar station located at river mile 8.6.

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area


Late Run Kenai River Chinook Inseason Summary for Mon. Aug 12

KENAI RIVER LATE-RUN KING SALMON INSEASON SUMMARY #9

MONDAY AUGUST 11

King Salmon Run Update:

Abundance estimation of Kenai River late-run king salmon began on July 1. The cumulative estimated passage thru August 11th was 10,898 large king salmon (≥ 75 cm mid-eye-to-tail-fork-length or ~ 34 inches in total length). The preseason forecast of 21,700 large king salmon is well below average. The sustainable escapement goal is 13,500– 27,000 large king salmon. Inseason assessment of the king salmon run consists of the sonar at RM 14 on the Kenai River mainstem, a sport angler creel survey of the lower river, inriver test netting for age, sex, length composition, and sampling of king salmon harvest in the east side set net commercial fishery. These ongoing information sources, along with historical data allow ADF&G managers to formulate inseason run projections of estimated escapement, harvest, and total run of large Kenai River king salmon. Table 1 displays the 2019 projection using data that is available on August 11th.

In response to the low forecast, inseason projections, and general performance of king salmon runs throughout Cook Inlet, ADF&G had restricted the king salmon fishery downstream from Slikok Creek by prohibiting the use of bait and multiple hooks from July 1 through the end of the king salmon fishing season on July 31st. ADF&G has issued an emergency order prohibiting the use of bait and multiple hooks in the Kenai River from the outlet of Skilak Lake downstream to the mouth effective 12:01 a.m. August 6, 2019. This restriction is in response to inseason run projections to achieve the sustainable escapement goal (SEG) have been dropping in August with lower than anticipated entry of king salmon past the sonar. Based on early run timing assessment of the inriver return, the SEG is not projected to be achieved. Restrictive actions to reduce harvest of Kenai River king salmon are being taken in the commercial fishery as well. Therefore, these measures are warranted to continue to conserve late-run Kenai River king salmon needed for escapement.

Fishery Update:

The king salmon sport fishery is closed by regulation on July 31.

For complete information about the late-run outlook please visit the following link:

http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fishing/pdfs/sport/byarea/southcentral/2019KenaiLateRunOutlook.pdf

Table 1. 2019 Inseason Summary Estimates for Kenai River Late-run Large Chinook Salmon

The Department switched to a large fish (≥34”) escapement goal for Kenai king salmon beginning with the 2017 season.  Smaller king salmon are also important and contribute to the escapement, but our current ability to accurately apportion counts to all species in a timely manner is lacking. A fish length of ≥34” was chosen because fish in that size range are nearly all king salmon.

Footnotes

  • Estimates and projections provided in the table are preliminary and will change as the season progresses. Each component is an estimate and has uncertainty associated with it.
  • The size of distribution of king salmon is not constant over the run; larger kings typically become more abundant in the harvest and the run as the season progresses.
  • The inseason estimated number of large kings in the ESSN harvest is likely biased.  Post-season analysis is used to produce unbiased estimates.
  • Genetic samples collected from the ESSN are NOT analyzed inseason
  • Estimates of large Kenai kings in the ESSN harvest provided in the table are based on minimum, mean, and maximum annual estimates from prior years (2010-2018).
  • ADF&G estimates that the harvest of king Salmon in the PU fishery will be negligible in 2019 since the harvest of kings in the PU fishery was closed by EO preseason.

This information was compiled based on raw and historical data for inseason management purposes.

Final data is subject to change.