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Alaska Department of Fish and Game


Kenai Chinook Estimates, Indices and Inseason Run Summaries

Location: Kenai River (Chinook)
Species: Chinook - Late Run
Method: Sonar

The selected years are color-coded in the graphs below:

  • 2016
  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
Daily Counts
Cumulative

Description: Description: In 2015 the department began managing Kenai king salmon runs using the ARIS sonar located at river mile 14, instead of the DIDSON sonar that had been located at river mile 8.6. The ARIS sonar estimates will be updated twice weekly. The daily estimates represent king salmon of all age and size classes. This ARIS sonar estimate is used to measure abundance relative to the optimum escapement goal of 5,300-9,000 early-run king salmon and the sustainable escapement goal of 15,000-30,000 late-run king salmon. To view daily estimates of king salmon passage go to the Abundance Indices tab, which is updated as data becomes available. The inseason run summary tab will provide information about king salmon passage at the mile 14 ARIS sonar site external link, netting project, creel survey, water conditions and management actions twice each week. Information about the status of the run and inseason management actions are also available by telephone at (907) 262-9097.

*8/2/2016 NOTE: Daily sonar estimates of the number of king salmon for July 7-26 have been revised due to a programming error discovered July 28th. For more information please refer to the 2016 Kenai River late-run king salmon revised sonar estimates memo. There is no change to the threshold estimates of fish larger than 34 inches.

Contact: Area Management Biologist,
(907) 262-9368

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

51 records returned for the years selected. Dashes indicate days with no count.
[Export results in Excel format]

Date
2016
Count
2016
Cumulative
2016
Cumulative
2015
Cumulative
2014
Cumulative
2013
Notes for
2016
Aug-20 - 22,535 23,705 16,871 19,373  
Aug-19 213 22,535 23,542 16,871 19,373 Last day of Sonar Counts
Aug-18 179 22,322 23,405 16,871 19,373  
Aug-17 83 22,143 23,106 16,871 19,373  
Aug-16 327 22,060 22,834 16,871 19,149  
Aug-15 187 21,733 22,688 16,871 18,938  
Aug-14 300 21,546 22,452 16,677 18,667  
Aug-13 394 21,246 22,170 16,425 18,317  
Aug-12 365 20,852 21,785 16,294 17,991  
Aug-11 109 20,487 21,614 16,103 17,793  
Aug-10 384 20,378 21,424 15,868 17,517  
Aug-09 299 19,994 20,885 15,539 17,140  
Aug-08 327 19,695 20,435 15,009 16,694  
Aug-07 406 19,368 19,942 14,761 16,139  
Aug-06 308 18,962 19,496 14,522 15,868  
Aug-05 458 18,654 18,758 13,916 15,479  
Aug-04 468 18,196 18,135 13,265 14,996  
Aug-03 327 17,728 17,622 12,781 14,508  
Aug-02 186 17,401 17,179 12,188 13,862  
Aug-01 305 17,215 16,812 11,746 13,250  
Jul-31 250 16,910 16,622 11,227 12,646  
Jul-30 493 16,660 16,353 10,451 11,993  
Jul-29 589 16,167 15,934 9,819 11,412  
Jul-28 634 15,578 15,521 9,350 10,830  
Jul-27 612 14,944 15,082 8,920 10,359  
Jul-26 410 14,332 14,617 8,547 9,910 Revised Estimate
Jul-25 548 13,922 13,984 8,160 9,119 Revised Estimate
Jul-24 544 13,374 13,230 7,712 8,642 Revised Estimate
Jul-23 532 12,830 12,021 7,495 8,388 Revised Estimate
Jul-22 637 12,298 11,079 7,128 7,888 Revised Estimate
Jul-21 429 11,661 10,289 6,847 7,618 Revised Estimate
Jul-20 357 11,232 9,722 6,323 7,407 Revised Estimate
Jul-19 527 10,875 9,284 5,797 6,889 Revised Estimate
Jul-18 591 10,348 8,795 5,430 6,421 Revised Estimate
Jul-17 471 9,757 7,967 4,867 5,659 Revised Estimate
Jul-16 300 9,286 6,949 4,448 5,073 Revised Estimate
Jul-15 531 8,986 6,449 4,225 4,183 Revised Estimate
Jul-14 784 8,455 5,936 3,727 3,489 Revised Estimate
Jul-13 788 7,671 5,438 3,434 2,893 Revised Estimate
Jul-12 1,111 6,883 4,945 3,010 2,536 Revised Estimate
Jul-11 902 5,772 4,195 2,525 2,316 Revised Estimate
Jul-10 758 4,870 3,540 2,202 1,881 Revised Estimate
Jul-09 497 4,112 2,875 2,077 1,555 Revised Estimate
Jul-08 463 3,615 2,383 1,922 1,219 Revised Estimate
Jul-07 328 3,152 2,008 1,689 1,110 Revised Estimate
Jul-06 384 2,824 1,674 1,232 978  
Jul-05 517 2,440 1,449 767 760  
Jul-04 364 1,923 1,091 439 599  
Jul-03 377 1,559 803 286 398  
Jul-02 709 1,182 538 273 263  
Jul-01 473 473 186 170 169  

Sonar Tools

Late Run ARIS Threshold (>34 in. total) Sonar Estimate

The ARIS threshold estimate is an estimate for fish targets that are measured to be 34 inches or greater in total length. These estimates are a daily index of the relative abundance of Chinook salmon passage past the mile 14 ARIS sonar site.

Show ARIS Threshold Data Table ↓

Date 2016 2015 2014 2013
Jun-20 - - - -
Jun-21 - - - -
Jun-22 - - - -
Jun-23 - - - -
Jun-24 - - - -
Jun-25 - - - -
Jun-26 - - - -
Jun-27 - - - -
Jun-28 - - - -
Jun-29 - - - -
Jun-30 - - - -
Jul-01 264 79 36 127
Jul-02 638 230 66 187
Jul-03 867 321 78 247
Jul-04 1,066 498 138 359
Jul-05 1,403 669 229 438
Jul-06 1,609 790 405 517
Jul-07 1,817 966 587 574
Jul-08 2,094 1,227 678 660
Jul-09 2,347 1,533 738 846
Jul-10 2,803 1,887 786 1,034
Jul-11 3,400 2,141 871 1,246
Jul-12 4,178 2,455 1,027 1,368
Jul-13 4,751 2,739 1,166 1,573
Jul-14 5,329 3,041 1,281 1,881
Jul-15 5,727 3,349 1,503 2,202
Jul-16 5,967 3,651 1,618 2,681
Jul-17 6,330 4,128 1,835 2,989
Jul-18 6,824 4,653 2,149 3,415
Jul-19 7,207 5,033 2,371 3,712
Jul-20 7,505 5,353 2,689 4,027
Jul-21 7,843 5,836 3,006 4,148
Jul-22 8,350 6,483 3,188 4,299
Jul-23 8,785 7,305 3,443 4,542
Jul-24 9,226 8,331 3,570 4,687
Jul-25 9,669 8,935 3,890 4,955
Jul-26 10,028 9,484 4,196 5,294
Jul-27 10,580 9,876 4,471 5,548
Jul-28 11,121 10,251 4,791 5,856
Jul-29 11,605 10,584 5,141 6,255
Jul-30 12,036 10,922 5,582 6,684
Jul-31 12,266 11,161 6,119 7,155
Aug-01 12,551 11,324 6,455 7,630
Aug-02 12,729 11,626 6,769 8,126
Aug-03 13,051 12,018 7,208 8,639
Aug-04 13,468 12,470 7,576 9,033
Aug-05 13,860 13,062 8,152 9,451
Aug-06 14,126 13,768 8,726 9,763
Aug-07 14,485 14,197 8,943 9,994
Aug-08 14,762 14,680 9,172 10,477
Aug-09 15,027 15,103 9,679 10,819
Aug-10 15,401 15,623 9,987 11,132
Aug-11 15,503 15,804 10,192 11,359
Aug-12 15,847 15,972 10,378 11,526
Aug-13 16,227 16,323 10,484 11,768
Aug-14 16,517 16,595 10,708 12,065
Aug-15 16,698 16,807 10,871 12,286
Aug-16 17,012 16,945 10,871 12,456
Aug-17 17,091 17,175 10,871 12,656
Aug-18 17,254 17,410 - -
Aug-19 17,447 17,530 - -
Aug-20 - 17,687 - -

Non-Sonar Tools

Late Run Netting Project CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted river mile 8.6.


Late Run Sport CPUE Index

The Sport Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon in the lower Kenai River and is based on the success rate of anglers fishing downstream of the Sterling Highway Bridge Crossing in Soldotna.

Late Run Eastside Setnet CPUE Index

The Eastside Setnet Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the total number of late-run Kenai River Chinook salmon.

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area


Final Late Run Kenai River Chinook Inseason Summary

Chinook salmon run update:

The final preliminary estimate of Chinook salmon passage at the river mile 14 ARIS sonar site was 22,535 Chinook salmon. Compared to the mean of the 2013 thru 2015 ARIS counts at river mile 14, this year’s inriver run was approximately 4 days early at river mile 14 with the midpoint on July 21. Approximately 25% of the total late-run passed the sonar in August, which is less when compared to the ARIS sonar operations at river mile 14 for the previous 3 years. Daily Chinook salmon passage from August 17 thru August 19 was less than one percent of the cumulative total season passage.

Fishery Harvest:

The final preliminary creel survey estimate of Chinook salmon sport fish harvest (including catch-and-release mortality) downstream of Soldotna was approximately 6,634 fish. The preliminary estimate of sport fish harvest (including catch-and-release mortality) upstream of Soldotna was 1,924 fish. By summation of harvest estimates upstream and downstream of Soldotna results in a preliminary estimate of total inriver sport fish harvest for 2016 of 8,558 Chinook salmon. Inriver harvest estimates will be refined upon publication of the 2016 Statewide Harvest Survey and 2016 Freshwater Sport Fish Guide Logbook data during September of 2017. The inriver sport fishery for Chinook salmon was restricted for the first 7 days by prohibiting the use of bait downstream of the Slikok Creek sanctuary. On July 8 bait was restored and standard regulations were in place for sport and personal fishing from Skilak Lake downstream to the mouth for the rest of July.

The final preliminary commercial eastside set net harvest was 6,413 Chinook salmon. The commercial eastside set net fishery was not restricted during the fishing season and operated as outlined in the Kenai River late-run sockeye salmon management plan. The last eastside set net fishing period was on August 12. Post-season analysis of tissue samples collected from Chinook salmon harvested in the eastside set net fishery will be used to estimate the component of Kenai River Chinook salmon.

The preliminary personal use harvest using the average harvest from 2006-2010 is estimated to be 1,289 Chinook salmon. Personal use harvest estimates will be finalized with actual permit data by March of 2017. The personal use fishery was not restricted during the fishing season.

Escapement:

The sustainable escapement goal (SEG) for Kenai River late-run Chinook salmon is 15,000 to 30,000 Chinook salmon. The preliminary total estimated inriver mortality (harvest and catch and release mortality) above the sonar is 4,497 fish. After inclusion of a preliminary estimate of approximately 761 Chinook salmon spawning downstream of the sonar (derived from 2012-2014 radio-telemetry data). The final preliminary escapement estimate is 18,790 Chinook salmon.

Additional Information:

Based on these preliminary inriver run and harvest estimates the final preliminary estimated total run of late-run Chinook salmon is ~33,000 fish and will be very near the preseason total run forecast of approximately 31,000 Chinook salmon.
Data collected from the Chinook salmon netting project at river mile 8.6 and the inriver creel survey of Chinook salmon harvest indicate the size and gender composition of the 2016 late-run more closely resembled historic size and gender compositions. Preliminary information based on using length of fish captured and measured in the test netting project as proxy for age showed that about 80% of Chinook salmon were 3-ocean age Chinook salmon or older (1-ocean 1%, 2-ocean 19%, 3-ocean 37%, 4-ocean 40%, 5-ocean 3%). In addition, the preliminary sex composition was approximately 42% female and 58% male Chinook salmon from the netting program. These preliminary netting compositions were also reflected in the preliminary results of fish sampled in the creel survey using length as a proxy for age, where about 80% of the sport harvest was comprised of 3-ocean age or older Chinook salmon and the sex composition of the harvest was 39% female and 61% male. Scales from both the netting project and the creel survey are being processed and final estimates of the age, sex and length composition of late-run Chinook salmon are still forthcoming.

Summary of cumulative raw information collected thru Aug 30 (by year) that is used to assess Kenai River Chinook run strength.
Year Number Chinook Captured in Test Net at river mile 8.6 Number Sockeye Captured in Test Net at river mile 8.6 Chinook Sport Harvest Below Soldotna Estimated by Creel Survey Cumulative ARIS Sonar Estimate Commercial Set Net Harvest
2002 1,171 1,915 11,482 ND 9,478
2003 1,446 1,464 13,837 ND 14,810
2004 1,077 749 14,494 ND 21,616
2005 1,027 730 15,312 ND 20,968
2006 1,330 566 13,190 ND 8,691
2007 780 2,107 9,258 ND 12,128
2008 895 1,435 9,272 ND 6,409
2009 559 1,798 7,378 ND 5,588
2010 311 3,454 5,375 ND 7,038
2011 472 3,548 6,458 ND 7,697
2012 345 3,685 102 ND 667
2013 200 2,072 1,577 19,373 2,630
2014 187 4,201 539 16,871 1,676
2015 239 1,103 3,896 23,406 7,306
2016 219 1,230 6,504 22,535 6,413

NOTE: N/A means that there is no fishery for that date, and an asterisk (*) means that there is no data for that date.