Fisheries, Subsistence, and Habitat
Publications Searchable Database
Search Again| Division: | Sport Fish |
| Title: | Run reconstruction, spawner-recruit analysis, and escapement goal recommendation for summer chum salmon in the East Fork of the Andreafsky River |
| Author: | Fleischman, S. J. and D. Evenson |
| Year: | 2010 |
| Report ID: | Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Fishery Manuscript Series No. 10-04, Anchorage. |
| Abstract: | Historical abundance of Andreafsky River, Anvik River, and aggregated other upriver stocks of summer chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta was reconstructed from mixed stock harvest data and incomplete sonar, weir, counting tower, and aerial survey data of varying precision from 1972 to 2007. The resulting estimates of escapement and harvest of East Fork Andreafsky River chum salmon were fitted to an age-structured Ricker spawner-recruit model. Bayesian statistical methods were employed, which allowed for realistic assessment of uncertainty in the presence of measurement error, serial correlation, and missing data. It is recommended that the existing biological escapement goal of 65,000 to 130,000 be changed to a lower-bound sustainable escapement goal of 40,000 chum salmon counted at the East Fork Andreafsky River weir. |
| Keywords: | chum salmon, Oncorhynchus keta, Yukon River, Andreafsky River, weir, spawning abundance, age composition, escapement goal, run reconstruction, spawner-recruit analysis, maximum sustained yield, measurement error, serial correlation, missing data, Bayesian statistics, WinBUGS |