Kenai Chinook Estimates, Indices and Inseason Run Summaries


Location: Kenai River (Chinook)
Species: Chinook - Late Run
Method: Sonar

The selected years are color-coded in the graphs below:

  • 2025
  • 2024
  • 2023
  • 2022
  • 2021
Daily Counts
Cumulative

Description: In 2015 the department began managing Kenai River king salmon runs using an ARIS sonar station located at river mile 14. In 2017 the Department modified the Kenai River king salmon escapement goals from goals based on king salmon of all sizes, to escapement goals based on large king salmon (fish over 34 inches) only. The early-run king salmon optimal escapement goal range is 3,900 to 6,600 large king salmon (> 34 inches). In 2020 the late-run king salmon escapement goal was modified to an optimal escapement goal range is 15,000 to 30,000 large king salmon (> 34 inches). The ARIS sonar counts found on this page are the daily and seasonal cumulative passage estimates of the number of large king salmon passing the sonar site. Additionally, the past years counts displayed on this page have been converted to large fish counts for comparison. These estimated numbers of large king salmon passing the sonar site are the primary tool for the Kenai River king salmon assessment program that also includes a sport angler harvest survey, and a netting program. The data gathered in these assessments are used together to determine king salmon run strength. This data in conjunction with Fishery Management Plans, allows fishery managers to determine if emergency order regulation changes to the fisheries are needed during the season to help ensure that the escapement goals are achieved. These abundance assessments as well as information about the status of the run and inseason management actions can be viewed via this website on the above tabs. Information is also available by telephone at (907)262-9097.

Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Early Run: 3,900 - 6,600
Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Late Run: 15,000 - 30,000 (Graphed above)

Contact: Area Management Biologist,
9072602920

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

58 records returned for the years selected. Dashes indicate days with no count.
[Export results in Excel format or JSON format]

Date
2025		 Count
2025		 Cumulative
2025		 Cumulative
2024		 Cumulative
2023		 Cumulative
2022		 Cumulative
2021		 Notes for
2025
Aug-27 - 0 6,630 13,922 13,425 11,832  
Aug-26 - 0 6,630 13,776 13,425 11,832  
Aug-25 - 0 6,630 13,679 13,425 11,832  
Aug-24 - 0 6,630 13,612 13,425 11,832  
Aug-23 - 0 6,630 - 13,425 11,832  
Aug-22 - 0 6,630 - 13,425 11,832  
Aug-21 - 0 6,630 13,436 13,425 11,832  
Aug-20 - 0 6,630 13,257 13,425 11,832  
Aug-19 - 0 6,630 13,111 13,425 11,754  
Aug-18 - 0 6,582 12,911 13,338 11,656  
Aug-17 - 0 6,534 12,747 13,253 11,486  
Aug-16 - 0 6,510 12,552 13,124 11,419  
Aug-15 - 0 6,408 12,381 12,961 11,279  
Aug-14 - 0 6,306 12,161 12,779 11,151  
Aug-13 - 0 6,240 12,045 12,567 10,884  
Aug-12 - 0 6,143 11,814 12,257 10,684  
Aug-11 - 0 6,070 11,559 11,887 10,491  
Aug-10 - 0 6,008 11,347 11,626 10,303  
Aug-09 - 0 5,917 11,111 11,407 9,757  
Aug-08 - 0 5,790 10,844 11,270 9,248  
Aug-07 - 0 5,687 10,424 11,124 8,872  
Aug-06 - 0 5,349 9,677 10,875 8,419  
Aug-05 - 0 4,932 9,313 10,487 8,064  
Aug-04 - 0 4,817 9,058 10,024 7,747  
Aug-03 - 0 4,624 8,889 9,711 7,504  
Aug-02 - 0 4,298 8,555 9,377 6,729  
Aug-01 - 0 4,056 7,960 9,001 6,420  
Jul-31 - 0 3,875 7,582 8,686 6,189  
Jul-30 - 0 3,682 7,260 8,189 5,818  
Jul-29 - 0 3,519 6,980 7,825 5,636  
Jul-28 - 0 3,308 6,725 7,394 5,296  
Jul-27 - 0 3,133 6,481 7,077 5,077  
Jul-26 - 0 2,952 6,250 6,531 4,864  
Jul-25 - 0 2,777 5,880 6,136 4,610  
Jul-24 - 0 2,626 5,467 5,675 4,452  
Jul-23 - 0 2,503 5,036 5,329 4,270  
Jul-22 - 0 2,286 4,600 4,927 4,142  
Jul-21 - 0 2,244 4,309 4,539 3,953  
Jul-20 - 0 2,123 4,114 4,142 3,717  
Jul-19 - 0 2,002 3,811 3,832 3,207  
Jul-18 - 0 1,827 3,708 3,419 2,872  
Jul-17 - 0 1,658 3,544 2,982 2,581  
Jul-16 - 0 1,489 3,016 2,655 2,363  
Jul-15 - 0 1,317 2,469 2,352 2,113  
Jul-14 - 0 1,097 2,244 2,147 1,871  
Jul-13 - 0 848 1,886 1,890 1,714  
Jul-12 - 0 745 1,654 1,751 1,538  
Jul-11 - 0 681 1,369 1,597 1,423  
Jul-10 - 0 520 1,163 1,475 1,303  
Jul-09 - 0 423 1,018 1,162 1,121  
Jul-08 - 0 320 733 950 994  
Jul-07 - 0 277 575 731 812  
Jul-06 - 0 247 484 537 709  
Jul-05 - 0 175 393 404 606  
Jul-04 - 0 96 314 307 515  
Jul-03 - 0 48 211 222 369  
Jul-02 - 0 36 120 172 253  
Jul-01 - 0 24 60 123 140  

Non-Sonar Tools

Late Run Netting Project CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at river mile 8.6.

Late Run Sport CPUE Index

The Sport Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon in the lower Kenai River and is based on the success rate of anglers fishing downstream of the Sterling Highway Bridge Crossing in Soldotna.

Late Run Netting Project Large Fish CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at the sonar station located at river mile 8.6.

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

Final Late Run Kenai River Chinook Inseason Summary

KENAI RIVER LATE-RUN KING SALMON FINAL 2022 INSEASON SUMMARY

King Salmon Run Update:

Abundance estimation of Kenai River late-run king salmon began on July 1 and concluded August 19. The preliminary estimated escapement 2022 is 13,952 large king salmon (≥ 75 cm mid-eye-to-tail-fork-length or ~ 34 inches in total length). The run was well below the preseason forecast of 16,004 large king salmon and did not achieve the optimal escapement goal (15,000 – 30,000 large fish) but did achieve the sustainable escapement goal (13,500 – 27,000 large fish). Based upon inseason assessment, preliminary estimated sport fish harvest, including catch-and-release mortality, is 17 large king salmon and the preliminary estimated eastside set net harvest is 32 large king salmon (Table 1). Inseason assessment of the king salmon run consists of the sonar at RM 13.7 on the Kenai River mainstem, a sport angler creel survey of the lower river, inriver test netting for age, sex, length composition, and sampling of king salmon harvest in the east side set net commercial fishery. These information sources, along with historical data allow ADF&G managers to formulate projections of estimated escapement, harvest, and total run of large Kenai River king salmon. Table 1 displays the final 2022 projection data. The inseason assessment data suggest that the run was on-time when compared to historical run timings. Based on sampling from the RM 8 netting project there was a larger proportion of 5-year fish and a smaller proportion of 6-year fish than forecasted.  Finalized harvest and escapement data will be published this coming winter after post-season analysis is complete.

Inseason Management:

The following management actions were issued to conserve late-run king salmon:

  • May 1, 2022 – EO 2-KS-7-10-22 closed the king salmon sport fishing within 1-mile of shore in Cook Inlet marine waters north of Bluff Point and reduced the annual limit from five to two king salmon.
    • Preseason Forecast: 16,004 large fish
  • July 1, 2022 – EO 2-KS-1-09-22 prohibited the retention of king salmon of any size and the use of bait and multiple hooks.
    • Preseason Forecast: 16,004 large fish
  • July 17, 2022 – EO 2-KS-1-53-22 closed the king salmon sport fishery.
    • Inseason Projection: 11,500 large fish
  • July 17, 2022 – EO 2-KS-7-55-22 closed the king salmon sport fishing in Cook Inlet marine waters north of Bluff Point.
    • Inseason Projection: 11,500 large fish
  • August 1, 2022 – EO-2-KS-1-61-22 prohibited the use of bait and multiple hooks until August 15.
    • Inseason Projection: 14,239 large fish

The preseason outlook for the 2022 late-run can be found at:

http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fishing/pdfs/sport/byarea/southcentral/2022KenaiLateRunOutlook.pdf

Table 1. 2022 Inseason Summary Estimates for Kenai River Late-run Large Chinook Salmon

2022 Inseason summary estimates for Kenai River late-run large King Salmon.        
Sonar data thru: 19-Aug   ESSN Summary          
Current Inriver King Assessment Information ESSN Total King Salmon harvest 306 (Fish Ticket Catch Report)
Most Recent Daily Sonar  87 ESSN Large King Salmon Harvests (all stocks) Based on Inseason Length Data 46
Cumulative Sonar to Date 13,425 Percentage Large King Salmon in ESSN Sample Thru  19-Aug 15%  
Est. Creel Harvest to Date  0 Min, mean, and max of Large ESSN King Salmon that were of Kenai origin (2010-2018 data)        
Creel Harvest Above Sonar  0 Kenai Large Contribution   61% 70% 79%  
Creel Harvest Below Sonar  0 ESSN Large Kenai Harvest to Date  28 32 36  
Creel All Sizes of King Salmon 0 ESSN Projected Kenai Large Harvest 28 32 36  
                     
Projected end of season estimates for large late-run Kenai River Chinook salmon.          
Run Timing Run to Date Estimated run to Sonar RM14 Estimated inriver run (includes spawning & harvest below sonar) Estimated Escapement (includes spawners below sonar) Estimated Sport Harvest Above Sonar RM 14 to Skilak Lake Estimated Sport Harvest Below Sonar RM 14 Estimated Total Inriver Sport Harvest Estimated ESSN Harvest Estimated Total Run Estimated Exploitation
On time 100.00% 13,425 13,962 13,952 10 7 17 32 13,994 0.35%