Kenai Chinook Estimates, Indices and Inseason Run Summaries


Location: Kenai River (Chinook)
Species: Chinook - Late Run
Method: Sonar

The selected years are color-coded in the graphs below:

  • 2024
  • 2023
  • 2022
  • 2021
  • 2020
Daily Counts
Cumulative

Description: In 2015 the department began managing Kenai River king salmon runs using an ARIS sonar station located at river mile 14. In 2017 the Department modified the Kenai River king salmon escapement goals from goals based on king salmon of all sizes, to escapement goals based on large king salmon (fish over 34 inches) only. The early-run king salmon optimal escapement goal range is 3,900 to 6,600 large king salmon (> 34 inches). In 2020 the late-run king salmon escapement goal was modified to an optimal escapement goal range is 15,000 to 30,000 large king salmon (> 34 inches). The ARIS sonar counts found on this page are the daily and seasonal cumulative passage estimates of the number of large king salmon passing the sonar site. Additionally, the past years counts displayed on this page have been converted to large fish counts for comparison. These estimated numbers of large king salmon passing the sonar site are the primary tool for the Kenai River king salmon assessment program that also includes a sport angler harvest survey, and a netting program. The data gathered in these assessments are used together to determine king salmon run strength. This data in conjunction with Fishery Management Plans, allows fishery managers to determine if emergency order regulation changes to the fisheries are needed during the season to help ensure that the escapement goals are achieved. These abundance assessments as well as information about the status of the run and inseason management actions can be viewed via this website on the above tabs. Information is also available by telephone at (907)262-9097.

Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Early Run: 3,900 - 6,600
Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Late Run: 15,000 - 30,000 (Graphed above)

Contact: Upper Cook Inlet Area Management Biologist,
(907) 262-9368

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

58 records returned for the years selected. Dashes indicate days with no count.
[Export results in Excel format or JSON format]

Date
2024		 Count
2024		 Cumulative
2024		 Cumulative
2023		 Cumulative
2022		 Cumulative
2021		 Cumulative
2020		 Notes for
2024
Aug-27 - 0 13,922 13,425 11,832 11,499  
Aug-26 - 0 13,776 13,425 11,832 11,499  
Aug-25 - 0 13,679 13,425 11,832 11,499  
Aug-24 - 0 13,612 13,425 11,832 11,499  
Aug-21 - 0 13,436 13,425 11,832 11,499  
Aug-20 - 0 13,257 13,425 11,832 11,499  
Aug-19 - 0 13,111 13,425 11,754 11,486  
Aug-18 - 0 12,911 13,338 11,656 11,413  
Aug-17 - 0 12,747 13,253 11,486 11,292  
Aug-16 - 0 12,552 13,124 11,419 11,062  
Aug-15 - 0 12,381 12,961 11,279 10,813  
Aug-14 - 0 12,161 12,779 11,151 10,491  
Aug-13 - 0 12,045 12,567 10,884 10,254  
Aug-12 - 0 11,814 12,257 10,684 10,066  
Aug-11 - 0 11,559 11,887 10,491 9,867  
Aug-10 - 0 11,347 11,626 10,303 9,719  
Aug-09 - 0 11,111 11,407 9,757 9,616  
Aug-08 - 0 10,844 11,270 9,248 9,483  
Aug-07 - 0 10,424 11,124 8,872 9,325  
Aug-06 - 0 9,677 10,875 8,419 9,185  
Aug-05 - 0 9,313 10,487 8,064 8,827  
Aug-04 - 0 9,058 10,024 7,747 8,494  
Aug-03 - 0 8,889 9,711 7,504 8,089  
Aug-02 - 0 8,555 9,377 6,729 7,932  
Aug-01 - 0 7,960 9,001 6,420 7,647  
Jul-31 - 0 7,582 8,686 6,189 7,465  
Jul-30 - 0 7,260 8,189 5,818 7,112  
Jul-29 - 0 6,980 7,825 5,636 6,681  
Jul-28 - 0 6,725 7,394 5,296 6,456  
Jul-27 - 0 6,481 7,077 5,077 6,019  
Jul-26 - 0 6,250 6,531 4,864 5,692  
Jul-25 - 0 5,880 6,136 4,610 5,438  
Jul-24 - 0 5,467 5,675 4,452 5,146  
Jul-23 - 0 5,036 5,329 4,270 4,970  
Jul-22 - 0 4,600 4,927 4,142 4,787  
Jul-21 - 0 4,309 4,539 3,953 4,520  
Jul-20 - 0 4,114 4,142 3,717 4,164  
Jul-19 - 0 3,811 3,832 3,207 3,879  
Jul-18 - 0 3,708 3,419 2,872 3,615  
Jul-17 - 0 3,544 2,982 2,581 3,404  
Jul-16 - 0 3,016 2,655 2,363 3,153  
Jul-15 - 0 2,469 2,352 2,113 2,941  
Jul-14 - 0 2,244 2,147 1,871 2,680  
Jul-13 - 0 1,886 1,890 1,714 2,220  
Jul-12 - 0 1,654 1,751 1,538 1,699  
Jul-11 - 0 1,369 1,597 1,423 1,407  
Jul-10 - 0 1,163 1,475 1,303 1,249  
Jul-09 - 0 1,018 1,162 1,121 989  
Jul-08 - 0 733 950 994 831  
Jul-07 - 0 575 731 812 728  
Jul-06 - 0 484 537 709 583  
Jul-05 - 0 393 404 606 407  
Jul-04 - 0 314 307 515 304  
Jul-03 - 0 211 222 369 219  
Jul-02 - 0 120 172 253 146  
Jul-01 - 0 60 123 140 73  

Non-Sonar Tools

Late Run Netting Project CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at river mile 8.6.

Late Run Sport CPUE Index

The Sport Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon in the lower Kenai River and is based on the success rate of anglers fishing downstream of the Sterling Highway Bridge Crossing in Soldotna.

Late Run Netting Project Large Fish CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at the sonar station located at river mile 8.6.

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

Late Run Kenai River Chinook Inseason Summary for Fri. Jul 29

KENAI RIVER LATE-RUN KING SALMON SUMMARY #06

King Salmon Run Update:

The cumulative estimated passage through July 31 is 8,686 large king salmon. The optimal escapement goal is 15,000 – 30,000 large king salmon. Inseason assessment of the king salmon run consists of the sonar at RM 14 on the Kenai River mainstem, a sport angler creel survey of the lower river, inriver test netting for age, sex, length composition, and sampling of king salmon harvest in the east side set net commercial fishery. These ongoing information sources, along with historical data allow ADF&G to formulate inseason run projections of estimated escapement, harvest, and total run of large Kenai River king salmon. Figure 1 is a table of the 2022 projections using data that is available through July 31. The inseason projection of escapement using the historical mean run timing is approximately 14,337 large fish. Using historical mean run timing the run is at ~ 63% complete.

In response to the inseason projections of escapement being less than 15,000 large king salmon, ADF&G issued emergency order 2-KS-1-53-22, which closes sport fishing for king salmon on the Kenai River drainage, including catch-and-release, effective 12:01 a.m. Sunday, July 17 through 11:59 p.m. Sunday, July 31, 2022. The Kenai River Late-Run King Salmon Management Plan states: if the projected late run escapement is less than 15,000 king salmon 75 cm mid eye to tail fork the department shall close the sport fisheries in the Kenai River and the salt waters of Cook Inlet north of the latitude of Bluff Point to the taking of king salmon. In addition, ADF&G shall close the commercial drift gillnet fishery in the Central District within one mile of the Kenai Peninsula shoreline north of the Kenai River and within one and one-half miles of the Kenai Peninsula shoreline south of the Kenai River; and close the commercial set gillnet fishery in the Upper Subdistrict and the Central District. Additionally, from August 1 through August 15, bait and multiple hooks will be prohibited in the Kenai River coho salmon sport fishery to reduce incidental catch of king salmon that are still entering the river.

Fishery Update:

The Kenai River late-run king salmon sport fishery is closed.

The preseason outlook for the 2022 late-run can be found at:

http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fishing/pdfs/sport/byarea/southcentral/2022KenaiLateRunOutlook.pdf

Water Conditions: 

Water levels as of July 28 in the Kenai River are average throughout the lower and middle river and falling.  Water temperature is below average.

CFS at Soldotna Bridge was 14,800 and 9.6 ft

CFS at Skilak Lake Outlet was 13,600 and 11.5 ft

Water Temperature was 54 degrees Fahrenheit at the sonar site.

This information was compiled based on raw and historical data for inseason management purposes.

Final data is subject to change.

Figure 1. 2022 Inseason Summary Estimates for Kenai River Late-run Large Chinook Salmon

Sonar data thru: 31-Jul   ESSN Summary          
Current Inriver King Assessment Information ESSN Total King Salmon harvest 306 (Fish Ticket Catch Report)
Most Recent Daily Sonar  497 ESSN Large King Salmon Harvests (all stocks) Based on Inseason Length Data 46
Cumulative Sonar to Date 8,686 Percentage Large King Salmon in ESSN Sample Thru  31-Jul 15%  
Est. Creel Harvest to Date  0 Min, mean, and max of Large ESSN King Salmon that were of Kenai origin (2010-2018 data)        
Creel Harvest Above Sonar  0 Kenai Large Contribution   61% 70% 79%  
Creel Harvest Below Sonar  0 ESSN Large Kenai Harvest to Date  28 32 36  
Creel All Sizes of King Salmon 0 ESSN Projected Kenai Large Harvest 28 32 36  
                     
Projected end of season estimates for large late-run Kenai River Chinook salmon.          
Run Timing Run to Date Estimated run to Sonar RM14 Estimated inriver run (includes spawning & harvest below sonar) Estimated Escapement (includes spawners below sonar) Estimated Sport Harvest Above Sonar RM 14 to Skilak Lake Estimated Sport Harvest Below Sonar RM 14 Estimated Total Inriver Sport Harvest Estimated ESSN Harvest Estimated Total Run Estimated Exploitation
On time 62.46% 13,906 14,559 14,337 10 7 17 32 14,591 0.34%
                     
Early Timing Scenarios                
1 early 64.61% 13,445 14,078 13,856 10 7 17 32 14,110 0.35%
2 early 66.97% 12,970 13,584 13,362 10 7 17 32 13,616 0.36%
3 early 69.94% 12,420 13,010 12,788 10 7 17 32 13,043 0.38%
                     
Late Timing Scenarios                
1 late 59.54% 14,588 14,997 15,185 10 7 17 32 15,235 0.33%
2 late 56.91% 15,264 15,907 15,889 10 7 17 32 15,939 0.31%
3 late 54.36% 15,980 16,653 16,635 10 7 17 32 16,685 0.29%
* Retention of king salmon is prohibited in personal use fisheries for 2022