Kenai Chinook Estimates, Indices and Inseason Run Summaries


Location: Kenai River (Chinook)
Species: Chinook - Late Run
Method: Sonar

The selected years are color-coded in the graphs below:

  • 2021
  • 2020
  • 2019
  • 2018
  • 2017
Daily Counts
Cumulative

Description: In 2015 the department began managing Kenai River king salmon runs using an ARIS sonar station located at river mile 14. In 2017 the Department modified the Kenai River king salmon escapement goals from goals based on king salmon of all sizes, to escapement goals based on large king salmon (fish over 34 inches) only. The early-run king salmon optimal escapement goal range is 3,900 to 6,600 large king salmon (> 34 inches). In 2020 the late-run king salmon escapement goal was modified to an optimal escapement goal range is 15,000 to 30,000 large king salmon (> 34 inches). The ARIS sonar counts found on this page are the daily and seasonal cumulative passage estimates of the number of large king salmon passing the sonar site. Additionally, the past years counts displayed on this page have been converted to large fish counts for comparison. These estimated numbers of large king salmon passing the sonar site are the primary tool for the Kenai River king salmon assessment program that also includes a sport angler harvest survey, and a netting program. The data gathered in these assessments are used together to determine king salmon run strength. This data in conjunction with Fishery Management Plans, allows fishery managers to determine if emergency order regulation changes to the fisheries are needed during the season to help ensure that the escapement goals are achieved. These abundance assessments as well as information about the status of the run and inseason management actions can be viewed via this website on the above tabs. Information is also available by telephone at (907)262-9097.

Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Early Run: 3,900 - 6,600
Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Late Run: 15,000 - 30,000 (Graphed above)

Contact: Northern Kenai Sport Fish Area Manager,
(907) 260-2920

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

51 records returned for the years selected. Dashes indicate days with no count.
[Export results in Excel format or JSON format]

Date
2021
Count
2021
Cumulative
2021
Cumulative
2020
Cumulative
2019
Cumulative
2018
Cumulative
2017
Notes for
2021
Aug-20 78 11,832 11,499 11,868 16,957 22,133  
Aug-19 98 11,754 11,486 11,747 16,672 21,844  
Aug-18 170 11,656 11,413 11,723 16,430 21,440  
Aug-17 67 11,486 11,292 11,687 16,213 21,097  
Aug-16 140 11,419 11,062 11,571 16,062 20,922  
Aug-15 128 11,279 10,813 11,413 15,839 20,687  
Aug-14 267 11,151 10,491 11,298 15,525 20,452  
Aug-13 200 10,884 10,254 11,074 15,296 20,272  
Aug-12 193 10,684 10,066 11,013 15,133 19,917  
Aug-11 188 10,491 9,867 10,898 14,722 19,634  
Aug-10 546 10,303 9,719 10,753 14,415 19,307  
Aug-09 509 9,757 9,616 10,629 14,101 19,102  
Aug-08 376 9,248 9,483 10,538 13,830 18,704  
Aug-07 453 8,872 9,325 10,410 13,552 18,112  
Aug-06 355 8,419 9,185 10,198 12,853 17,587  
Aug-05 317 8,064 8,827 10,059 12,440 16,920  
Aug-04 243 7,747 8,494 9,889 11,848 16,166  
Aug-03 775 7,504 8,089 9,586 11,411 15,429  
Aug-02 309 6,729 7,932 9,434 10,855 14,952  
Aug-01 231 6,420 7,647 9,258 10,434 14,350  
Jul-31 371 6,189 7,465 9,118 9,879 13,916  
Jul-30 182 5,818 7,112 8,906 9,391 12,993  
Jul-29 340 5,636 6,681 8,615 8,969 12,613  
Jul-28 219 5,296 6,456 8,373 8,518 12,070  
Jul-27 213 5,077 6,019 8,118 8,101 11,448  
Jul-26 254 4,864 5,692 7,876 7,675 11,050  
Jul-25 158 4,610 5,438 7,543 7,222 10,374  
Jul-24 182 4,452 5,146 7,213 6,575 9,813  
Jul-23 128 4,270 4,970 6,849 6,176 8,828  
Jul-22 189 4,142 4,787 6,473 5,675 8,439  
Jul-21 236 3,953 4,520 5,970 5,258 8,041  
Jul-20 510 3,717 4,164 5,424 4,878 7,556  
Jul-19 335 3,207 3,879 4,921 4,311 7,206  
Jul-18 291 2,872 3,615 4,551 3,798 6,706  
Jul-17 218 2,581 3,404 4,132 3,439 6,024  
Jul-16 250 2,363 3,153 3,647 3,170 5,385  
Jul-15 242 2,113 2,941 3,343 2,898 4,770  
Jul-14 157 1,871 2,680 3,021 2,770 4,330  
Jul-13 176 1,714 2,220 2,657 2,619 3,938  
Jul-12 115 1,538 1,699 2,397 2,396 3,540  
Jul-11 120 1,423 1,407 2,067 2,100 3,119  
Jul-10 182 1,303 1,249 1,734 1,978 2,715  
Jul-09 127 1,121 989 1,455 1,885 2,323  
Jul-08 182 994 831 1,252 1,637 1,852  
Jul-07 103 812 728 1,053 1,413 1,484  
Jul-06 103 709 583 890 1,051 1,194  
Jul-05 91 606 407 630 798 1,031  
Jul-04 146 515 304 473 598 820  
Jul-03 116 369 219 314 399 609  
Jul-02 113 253 146 235 278 437  
Jul-01 140 140 73 97 115 181  

Non-Sonar Tools

Late Run Netting Project CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at river mile 8.6.


Late Run Sport CPUE Index

The Sport Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon in the lower Kenai River and is based on the success rate of anglers fishing downstream of the Sterling Highway Bridge Crossing in Soldotna.

Late Run Netting Project Large Fish CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at the sonar station located at river mile 8.6.

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area


Final Late Run Kenai River Chinook Inseason Summary

KENAI RIVER LATE-RUN KING SALMON FINAL INSEASON SUMMARY

King Salmon Run Update:

Abundance estimation of Kenai River late-run king salmon began on July 1 and concluded August 20. The total estimated passage thru August 20th was 11,868 large king salmon (≥ 75 cm mid-eye-to-tail-fork-length or ~ 34 inches in total length). The return is well below the preseason forecast of 21,700 large king salmon and did not achieve the sustainable escapement goal (13,500–27,000 large fish).  Based upon inseason assessment, preliminary estimated sport fish harvest is 931 large king salmon and the preliminary estimated eastside set net harvest is 690 large king salmon (Table 1). Inseason assessment of the king salmon run consists of the sonar at RM 14 on the Kenai River mainstem, a sport angler creel survey of the lower river, inriver test netting for age, sex, length composition, and sampling of king salmon harvest in the east side set net commercial fishery. These information sources, along with historical data allow ADF&G managers to formulate inseason run projections of estimated escapement, harvest, and total run of large Kenai River king salmon. Table 1 displays the final 2019 projection data. The inseason assessment data suggest that the run was one day early and notably lacked the 30-40% of the run that historically comes in the first week of August. Finalized harvest and escapement data will be published this coming winter after post-season analysis is complete.

Fishery Update:

The king salmon sport fishery is closed by regulation on July 31.

For complete information about the late-run outlook please visit the following link:

http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fishing/pdfs/sport/byarea/southcentral/2019KenaiLateRunOutlook.pdf

Table 1. 2019 Inseason Summary Estimates for Kenai River Late-run Large Chinook Salmon

The Department switched to a large fish (≥34”) escapement goal for Kenai king salmon beginning with the 2017 season.  Smaller king salmon are also important and contribute to the escapement, but our current ability to accurately apportion counts to all species in a timely manner is lacking. A fish length of ≥34” was chosen because fish in that size range are nearly all king salmon.

Footnotes

  • Estimates and projections provided in the table are preliminary and will change as the season progresses. Each component is an estimate and has uncertainty associated with it.
  • The size of distribution of king salmon is not constant over the run; larger kings typically become more abundant in the harvest and the run as the season progresses.
  • The inseason estimated number of large kings in the ESSN harvest is likely biased.  Post-season analysis is used to produce unbiased estimates.
  • Genetic samples collected from the ESSN are NOT analyzed inseason
  • Estimates of large Kenai kings in the ESSN harvest provided in the table are based on minimum, mean, and maximum annual estimates from prior years (2010-2018).
  • ADF&G estimates that the harvest of king Salmon in the PU fishery will be negligible in 2019 since the harvest of kings in the PU fishery was closed by EO preseason.

This information was compiled based on raw and historical data for inseason management purposes.

Final data is subject to change.