Kenai Chinook Estimates, Indices and Inseason Run Summaries


Location: Kenai River (Chinook)
Species: Chinook - Late Run
Method: Sonar

The selected years are color-coded in the graphs below:

  • 2024
  • 2023
  • 2022
  • 2021
  • 2020
Daily Counts
Cumulative

Description: In 2015 the department began managing Kenai River king salmon runs using an ARIS sonar station located at river mile 14. In 2017 the Department modified the Kenai River king salmon escapement goals from goals based on king salmon of all sizes, to escapement goals based on large king salmon (fish over 34 inches) only. The early-run king salmon optimal escapement goal range is 3,900 to 6,600 large king salmon (> 34 inches). In 2020 the late-run king salmon escapement goal was modified to an optimal escapement goal range is 15,000 to 30,000 large king salmon (> 34 inches). The ARIS sonar counts found on this page are the daily and seasonal cumulative passage estimates of the number of large king salmon passing the sonar site. Additionally, the past years counts displayed on this page have been converted to large fish counts for comparison. These estimated numbers of large king salmon passing the sonar site are the primary tool for the Kenai River king salmon assessment program that also includes a sport angler harvest survey, and a netting program. The data gathered in these assessments are used together to determine king salmon run strength. This data in conjunction with Fishery Management Plans, allows fishery managers to determine if emergency order regulation changes to the fisheries are needed during the season to help ensure that the escapement goals are achieved. These abundance assessments as well as information about the status of the run and inseason management actions can be viewed via this website on the above tabs. Information is also available by telephone at (907)262-9097.

Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Early Run: 3,900 - 6,600
Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Late Run: 15,000 - 30,000 (Graphed above)

Contact: Upper Cook Inlet Area Management Biologist,
(907) 262-9368

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

58 records returned for the years selected. Dashes indicate days with no count.
[Export results in Excel format or JSON format]

Date
2024		 Count
2024		 Cumulative
2024		 Cumulative
2023		 Cumulative
2022		 Cumulative
2021		 Cumulative
2020		 Notes for
2024
Aug-27 - 0 13,922 13,425 11,832 11,499  
Aug-26 - 0 13,776 13,425 11,832 11,499  
Aug-25 - 0 13,679 13,425 11,832 11,499  
Aug-24 - 0 13,612 13,425 11,832 11,499  
Aug-21 - 0 13,436 13,425 11,832 11,499  
Aug-20 - 0 13,257 13,425 11,832 11,499  
Aug-19 - 0 13,111 13,425 11,754 11,486  
Aug-18 - 0 12,911 13,338 11,656 11,413  
Aug-17 - 0 12,747 13,253 11,486 11,292  
Aug-16 - 0 12,552 13,124 11,419 11,062  
Aug-15 - 0 12,381 12,961 11,279 10,813  
Aug-14 - 0 12,161 12,779 11,151 10,491  
Aug-13 - 0 12,045 12,567 10,884 10,254  
Aug-12 - 0 11,814 12,257 10,684 10,066  
Aug-11 - 0 11,559 11,887 10,491 9,867  
Aug-10 - 0 11,347 11,626 10,303 9,719  
Aug-09 - 0 11,111 11,407 9,757 9,616  
Aug-08 - 0 10,844 11,270 9,248 9,483  
Aug-07 - 0 10,424 11,124 8,872 9,325  
Aug-06 - 0 9,677 10,875 8,419 9,185  
Aug-05 - 0 9,313 10,487 8,064 8,827  
Aug-04 - 0 9,058 10,024 7,747 8,494  
Aug-03 - 0 8,889 9,711 7,504 8,089  
Aug-02 - 0 8,555 9,377 6,729 7,932  
Aug-01 - 0 7,960 9,001 6,420 7,647  
Jul-31 - 0 7,582 8,686 6,189 7,465  
Jul-30 - 0 7,260 8,189 5,818 7,112  
Jul-29 - 0 6,980 7,825 5,636 6,681  
Jul-28 - 0 6,725 7,394 5,296 6,456  
Jul-27 - 0 6,481 7,077 5,077 6,019  
Jul-26 - 0 6,250 6,531 4,864 5,692  
Jul-25 - 0 5,880 6,136 4,610 5,438  
Jul-24 - 0 5,467 5,675 4,452 5,146  
Jul-23 - 0 5,036 5,329 4,270 4,970  
Jul-22 - 0 4,600 4,927 4,142 4,787  
Jul-21 - 0 4,309 4,539 3,953 4,520  
Jul-20 - 0 4,114 4,142 3,717 4,164  
Jul-19 - 0 3,811 3,832 3,207 3,879  
Jul-18 - 0 3,708 3,419 2,872 3,615  
Jul-17 - 0 3,544 2,982 2,581 3,404  
Jul-16 - 0 3,016 2,655 2,363 3,153  
Jul-15 - 0 2,469 2,352 2,113 2,941  
Jul-14 - 0 2,244 2,147 1,871 2,680  
Jul-13 - 0 1,886 1,890 1,714 2,220  
Jul-12 - 0 1,654 1,751 1,538 1,699  
Jul-11 - 0 1,369 1,597 1,423 1,407  
Jul-10 - 0 1,163 1,475 1,303 1,249  
Jul-09 - 0 1,018 1,162 1,121 989  
Jul-08 - 0 733 950 994 831  
Jul-07 - 0 575 731 812 728  
Jul-06 - 0 484 537 709 583  
Jul-05 - 0 393 404 606 407  
Jul-04 - 0 314 307 515 304  
Jul-03 - 0 211 222 369 219  
Jul-02 - 0 120 172 253 146  
Jul-01 - 0 60 123 140 73  

Non-Sonar Tools

Late Run Netting Project CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at river mile 8.6.

Late Run Sport CPUE Index

The Sport Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon in the lower Kenai River and is based on the success rate of anglers fishing downstream of the Sterling Highway Bridge Crossing in Soldotna.

Late Run Netting Project Large Fish CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at the sonar station located at river mile 8.6.

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

Late Run Kenai River Chinook Inseason Summary for Mon. Aug 5

KENAI RIVER LATE-RUN KING SALMON INSEASON SUMMARY #8

MONDAY AUGUST 5

King Salmon Run Update:

Abundance estimation of Kenai River late-run king salmon began on July 1. The cumulative estimated passage thru August 5th was 9,889 large king salmon (≥ 75 cm mid-eye-to-tail-fork-length or ~ 34 inches in total length). The preseason forecast of 21,700 large king salmon is well below average. The sustainable escapement goal is 13,500– 27,000 large king salmon. Inseason assessment of the king salmon run consists of the sonar at RM 14 on the Kenai River mainstem, a sport angler creel survey of the lower river, inriver test netting for age, sex, length composition, and sampling of king salmon harvest in the east side set net commercial fishery. These ongoing information sources, along with historical data allow ADF&G managers to formulate inseason run projections of estimated escapement, harvest, and total run of large Kenai River king salmon. Table 1 displays the 2019 projection using data that is available on August 4th.

In response to the low forecast, inseason projections, and general performance of king salmon runs throughout Cook Inlet, ADF&G had restricted the king salmon fishery downstream from Slikok Creek by prohibiting the use of bait and multiple hooks from July 1 through the end of the king salmon fishing season on July 31st. ADF&G has issued an emergency order prohibiting the use of bait and multiple hooks in the Kenai River from the outlet of Skilak Lake downstream to the mouth effective 12:01 a.m. August 6, 2019. This restriction is in response to inseason run projections to achieve the sustainable escapement goal (SEG) have been dropping in August with lower than anticipated entry of king salmon past the sonar. Based on early run timing assessment of the inriver return, the SEG is not projected to be achieved. Restrictive actions to reduce harvest of Kenai River king salmon are being taken in the commercial fishery as well. Therefore, these measures are warranted to continue to conserve late-run Kenai River king salmon needed for escapement.

Fishery Update:

Fishing effort and catch rates were below average as river conditions and low abundance had been unfavorable to angler success. The king salmon sport fishery is closed by regulation on July 31.

For complete information about the late-run outlook please visit the following link:

http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fishing/pdfs/sport/byarea/southcentral/2019KenaiLateRunOutlook.pdf

Table 1. 2019 Inseason Summary Estimates for Kenai River Late-run Large Chinook Salmon

The Department switched to a large fish (≥34”) escapement goal for Kenai king salmon beginning with the 2017 season.  Smaller king salmon are also important and contribute to the escapement, but our current ability to accurately apportion counts to all species in a timely manner is lacking. A fish length of ≥34” was chosen because fish in that size range are nearly all king salmon.

Footnotes

  • Estimates and projections provided in the table are preliminary and will change as the season progresses. Each component is an estimate and has uncertainty associated with it.
  • The size of distribution of king salmon is not constant over the run; larger kings typically become more abundant in the harvest and the run as the season progresses.
  • The inseason estimated number of large kings in the ESSN harvest is likely biased.  Post-season analysis is used to produce unbiased estimates.
  • Genetic samples collected from the ESSN are NOT analyzed inseason
  • Estimates of large Kenai kings in the ESSN harvest provided in the table are based on minimum, mean, and maximum annual estimates from prior years (2010-2018).
  • ADF&G estimates that the harvest of king Salmon in the PU fishery will be negligible in 2019 since the harvest of kings in the PU fishery was closed by EO preseason.

This information was compiled based on raw and historical data for inseason management purposes.

Final data is subject to change.