Kenai Chinook Estimates, Indices and Inseason Run Summaries

Location: Kenai River (Chinook)
Species: Chinook - Late Run
Method: Sonar

The selected years are color-coded in the graphs below:

  • 2020
  • 2019
  • 2018
  • 2017
  • 2016
Daily Counts
Cumulative

Description: In 2015 the department began managing Kenai River king salmon runs using an ARIS sonar station located at river mile 14. In 2017 the Department modified the Kenai River king salmon escapement goals from goals based on king salmon of all sizes, to escapement goals based on large king salmon (fish over 34 inches) only. The early-run king salmon optimal escapement goal range is 3,900 to 6,600 large king salmon (> 34 inches). In 2020 the late-run king salmon escapement goal was modified to an optimal escapement goal range is 15,000 to 30,000 large king salmon (> 34 inches). The ARIS sonar counts found on this page are the daily and seasonal cumulative passage estimates of the number of large king salmon passing the sonar site. Additionally, the past years counts displayed on this page have been converted to large fish counts for comparison. These estimated numbers of large king salmon passing the sonar site are the primary tool for the Kenai River king salmon assessment program that also includes a sport angler harvest survey, and a netting program. The data gathered in these assessments are used together to determine king salmon run strength. This data in conjunction with Fishery Management Plans, allows fishery managers to determine if emergency order regulation changes to the fisheries are needed during the season to help ensure that the escapement goals are achieved. These abundance assessments as well as information about the status of the run and inseason management actions can be viewed via this website on the above tabs. Information is also available by telephone at (907)262-9097.

Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Early Run: 3,900 - 6,600
Optimal Escapement Goal for Chinook - Late Run: 15,000 - 30,000 (Graphed above)

Contact: Northern Kenai Sport Fish Area Manager,
(907) 260-2920

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area

51 records returned for the years selected. Dashes indicate days with no count.
[Export results in Excel format or JSON format]

Date
2020
Count
2020
Cumulative
2020
Cumulative
2019
Cumulative
2018
Cumulative
2017
Notes for
2020
Aug-20 - 989 11,868 16,957 22,133  
Aug-19 - 989 11,747 16,672 21,844  
Aug-18 - 989 11,723 16,430 21,440  
Aug-17 - 989 11,687 16,213 21,097  
Aug-16 - 989 11,571 16,062 20,922  
Aug-15 - 989 11,413 15,839 20,687  
Aug-14 - 989 11,298 15,525 20,452  
Aug-13 - 989 11,074 15,296 20,272  
Aug-12 - 989 11,013 15,133 19,917  
Aug-11 - 989 10,898 14,722 19,634  
Aug-10 - 989 10,753 14,415 19,307  
Aug-09 - 989 10,629 14,101 19,102  
Aug-08 - 989 10,538 13,830 18,704  
Aug-07 - 989 10,410 13,552 18,112  
Aug-06 - 989 10,198 12,853 17,587  
Aug-05 - 989 10,059 12,440 16,920  
Aug-04 - 989 9,889 11,848 16,166  
Aug-03 - 989 9,586 11,411 15,429  
Aug-02 - 989 9,434 10,855 14,952  
Aug-01 - 989 9,258 10,434 14,350  
Jul-31 - 989 9,118 9,879 13,916  
Jul-30 - 989 8,906 9,391 12,993  
Jul-29 - 989 8,615 8,969 12,613  
Jul-28 - 989 8,373 8,518 12,070  
Jul-27 - 989 8,118 8,101 11,448  
Jul-26 - 989 7,876 7,675 11,050  
Jul-25 - 989 7,543 7,222 10,374  
Jul-24 - 989 7,213 6,575 9,813  
Jul-23 - 989 6,849 6,176 8,828  
Jul-22 - 989 6,473 5,675 8,439  
Jul-21 - 989 5,970 5,258 8,041  
Jul-20 - 989 5,424 4,878 7,556  
Jul-19 - 989 4,921 4,311 7,206  
Jul-18 - 989 4,551 3,798 6,706  
Jul-17 - 989 4,132 3,439 6,024  
Jul-16 - 989 3,647 3,170 5,385  
Jul-15 - 989 3,343 2,898 4,770  
Jul-14 - 989 3,021 2,770 4,330  
Jul-13 - 989 2,657 2,619 3,938  
Jul-12 - 989 2,397 2,396 3,540  
Jul-11 - 989 2,067 2,100 3,119  
Jul-10 - 989 1,734 1,978 2,715  
Jul-09 158 989 1,455 1,885 2,323  
Jul-08 103 831 1,252 1,637 1,852  
Jul-07 145 728 1,053 1,413 1,484  
Jul-06 176 583 890 1,051 1,194  
Jul-05 103 407 630 798 1,031  
Jul-04 85 304 473 598 820  
Jul-03 73 219 314 399 609  
Jul-02 73 146 235 278 437  
Jul-01 73 73 97 115 181  

Non-Sonar Tools

Late Run Netting Project CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at river mile 8.6.


Late Run Sport CPUE Index

The Sport Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon in the lower Kenai River and is based on the success rate of anglers fishing downstream of the Sterling Highway Bridge Crossing in Soldotna.

Late Run Netting Project Large Fish CPUE Index

The Net Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) is an index of the numbers of Chinook salmon moving into the Kenai River and is based on the rate at which Chinook salmon are captured by the netting project conducted at the sonar station located at river mile 8.6.

Weekly Sportfish Fishing Report for this area


Late Run Kenai River Chinook Inseason Summary for Thu. Jul 9

KENAI RIVER LATE-RUN KING SALMON SUMMARY #02

King Salmon Run Update:

Estimation of the late-run began on July 1, the cumulative estimated passage through July 8 is 831 large king salmon. The optimal escapement goal is 15,000 – 30,000 large king salmon. Inseason assessment of the king salmon run consists of the sonar at RM 14 on the Kenai River mainstem, a sport angler creel survey of the lower river, inriver test netting for age, sex, length composition, and sampling of king salmon harvest in the east side set net commercial fishery. These ongoing information sources, along with historical data allow ADF&G managers to formulate inseason run projections of estimated escapement, harvest, and total run of large Kenai River king salmon. Figure 1 is a table of the 2020 projections using data that is available on July 8. The inseason projection of escapement using the historical mean run timing is approximately 10,300 fish. Inseason run projections do fluctuate while we are still early in the run (8% AVG run timing) and should start to solidify and confidence intervals will narrow as the run approaches the average quarter point on July 17.

In response to the low forecast, a very weak early-run, and general performance of king salmon runs throughout Cook Inlet, ADF&G restricted the king salmon fishery downstream of the lower Slikok Creek markers by prohibiting the use of bait and multiple hooks and limiting harvest to only king salmon less than 34 inches in length may be retained. King salmon fishing upstream from ADF&G markers downstream of Slikok Creek to the outlet of Skilak Lake will remain closed through July 31, 2020 as directed in regulation under the Kenai River and Kasilof River Early-run King Salmon Management Plan.

The next inseason summary will be updated July 16.

Fishery Update:

Fishing success was reported as slow improving to fair this week and water conditions are favorable to anglers for this time of year. CPUE data collected from the netting program indicates a catch of all sizes and large king salmon are near the 5-year average but below the historical average. The creel survey has resumed as of July 1 and information from that program indicates below average catch for all sizes of fish.

The preseason outlook for the 2020 late-run can be found at:

http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fishing/pdfs/sport/byarea/southcentral/2020KenaiLateRunOutlook.pdf.

Water Conditions: 

Water levels as of July 8 in the Kenai River are below average in the upper river and average in the lower river. Water temperature is average.

CFS at Soldotna Bridge was 11,900 and 8.93 ft

CFS at Skilak Lake Outlet was 10,300 and 10.66 ft

CFS at Cooper Landing was 5,930 and 10.36 ft

Water Temperature was 54 degrees Fahrenheit at the sonar site.

This information was compiled based on raw and historical data for inseason managment purposes. Final data is subject to change.

Figure 1. 2020 Inseason Summary Estimates for Kenai River Late-run Large Chinook Salmon

Sonar data thru: 8-Jul   ESSN Summary          
Current Inriver Chinook Assessment Information ESSN Total Chinook Salmon harvest 316 (Fish Ticket Catch Report)
Most Recent Daily Sonar  103 ESSN Large Chinook Harvests (all stocks) Based on Inseason Length Data 57
Cumulative Sonar to Date 831 Percentage Large Chinook in ESSN Sample Thru  8-Jul 18%  
Est. Creel Harvest to Date  0 Min, mean, and max of Large ESSN Chinook that were of Kenai origin (2010-2018 data)        
Creel Harvest Above Sonar  0 Kenai Large Contribution   60% 69% 79%  
Creel Harvest Below Sonar  0 ESSN Large Kenai Harvest to Date                    34             39              45  
Creel All Sizes of Chinook  21 ESSN Projected Kenai Large Harvest                 203           233            267  
                     
                     
Projected end of season estimates for large late-run Kenai River Chinook salmon.          
Run Timing Run to Date Estimated run to Sonar RM14 Estimated inriver run (includes spawning & harvet below sonar) Estimated Escapement (includes spawners below sonar) Estimated Sport Harvest Above Sonar RM 14 to Skilak Lake Estimated Sport Harvest Below Sonar RM 14 Estimated Total Inriver Sport Harvest Estimated ESSN Harvest Estimated Total Run Estimated Exploitation
On time 8.41% 9,883 10,318 10,285 9 23 32 39 10,791 0.66%
                     
Early Timing Scenarios                
1 early 9.91% 8,388 8,756 8,729 8 19 27 200 9,387 2.42%
2 early 11.51% 7,221 7,539 7,515 7 17 24 173 8,140 2.42%
                     
Late Timing Scenarios                
1 late 7.09% 11,721 12,236 12,198 10 27 38 282 12,972 2.47%
2 late 5.79% 14,353 14,982 14,938 12 32 44 317 15,758 2.29%
* Retention of king salmon is prohibited in personal use fisheries for 2020