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Division: Sport Fish
Title: Run reconstruction, spawner–recruit analysis, and escapement goal recommendation for early-run Chinook salmon in the Kenai River
Author: McKinley, T. R., and S. J. Fleischman
Year: 2013
Report ID: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Fishery Manuscript Series No. 13-03, Anchorage
Abstract: An age-structured state-space spawner–recruit model was fit to estimates of relative and absolute abundance, harvest, and age composition for Kenai River early-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from 1986 to 2012. Bayesian statistical methods were employed, which assessed uncertainty in the presence of measurement error, serial correlation, and missing data. Results were robust to several alternate configurations of the model and data. A sustainable escapement goal of 3,800 to 8,500 fish is recommended for Kenai River early-run Chinook salmon, evaluated by multiplying DIDSON-based estimates of inriver abundance by 1.55 to account for undetected Chinook salmon passing the sonar site at river mile 9, and subtracting harvest and catch-and-release mortality above the current sonar site. It is recommended this goal be considered for revision after the sonar site is moved upriver. Annual runs of Kenai River early-run Chinook salmon are expected to remain below average in the near future.
Keywords: Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Kenai River, spawning abundance, age composition, escapement goal, run reconstruction, spawner–recruit analysis, maximum sustained yield, maximum recruitment, measurement error, serial correlation, missing data, Bayesian statistics, OpenBUGS