Fisheries, Subsistence, and Habitat
Publications Searchable Database
Search Again| Division: | Sport Fish |
| Title: | Run reconstruction, spawner–recruit analysis, and escapement goal recommendation for late-run Chinook salmon in the Kenai River |
| Author: | Fleischman, S. J. and T. R. McKinley |
| Year: | 2013 |
| Report ID: | Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Fishery Manuscript Series No. 13-02, Anchorage |
| Abstract: | An age-structured state-space spawner–recruit model was fit to estimates of relative and absolute abundance, harvest, and age composition for Kenai River late-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from 1986 to 2012. Bayesian statistical methods were employed, which assessed uncertainty in the presence of measurement error, serial correlation, and missing data. It is recommended that an interim sustainable escapement goal of 15,000 to 30,000 fish be adopted for Kenai River late-run Chinook salmon, evaluated by multiplying DIDSON-based estimates of inriver abundance by 1.28 to account for undetected Chinook salmon passing the sonar site at river mile 9, and subtracting harvest and catch-and-release mortality above the current sonar site. It is recommended this goal be considered for revision after the sonar site is moved upriver. Annual runs of Kenai River late-run Chinook salmon are expected to remain below average in the near future. |
| Keywords: | Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Kenai River, late run, spawning abundance, age composition, escapement goal, run reconstruction, spawner–recruit analysis, maximum sustained yield, measurement error, serial correlation, missing data, Bayesian statistics, OpenBUGS |